[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 311623
SWODY1
SPC AC 311622

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CDT THU AUG 31 2006

VALID 311630Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE ERN
CAROLINAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...ERN CAROLINAS...
LATEST INFORMATION FROM NHC INDICATES ERNESTO HAS STRENGTHENED
OVERNIGHT OFF THE GA COAST.  THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NNEWD MAKING LANDFALL NEAR THE SC/NC BORDER AROUND 05-06Z AND
CONTINUING INTO ERN NC DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  STRONGER
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND ATTENDANT VERTICAL SHEAR WITHIN NERN
QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT INTO COASTAL REGIONS OF NERN SC AND NC...INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS.  IN ADDITION...COASTAL
BOUNDARY IN ADVANCE OF ERNESTO CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE NC COAST
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND BY TONIGHT AND FURTHER ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR PROFILES.  THIS MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
WITH THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... 
SRN PORTION OF UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MT/WY IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM WILL
FORCE SURFACE COLD FRONT EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  

12Z AREA SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S COUPLED WITH STRONG DIABATIC
INSOLATION THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG.  ALTHOUGH STRONGEST
DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE LOCATED WELL NORTH OF
THE PLAINS...PROGRESSION OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOWNSTREAM OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...AND UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL WIND COMPONENT FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM PARTS OF NERN CO
INTO WRN/CENTRAL NEB.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD/SEWD
INTO SERN CO/WRN KS AND POSSIBLY THE OK PANHANDLE REGION THROUGH THE
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER AT NIGHT.  DEEP LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR OF 30-35 KT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF PRIMARILY MULTICELLULAR
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.  LARGE HAIL AND OCCASIONAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS.

..WEISS/JEWELL.. 08/31/2006