[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 301622
SWODY1
SPC AC 301621

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CDT WED AUG 30 2006

VALID 301630Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MUCH OF THE U.S. IS ENTERING A BLOCKING TYPE PATTERN AS MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW BECOMES ANCHORED OVER IL/IND.  MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE NWRN U.S. WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLATEAU INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS BEEN PUSHED INTO THE SWRN U.S.
AND EXTENDS NEWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.  MEANWHILE...T.D. ERNESTO
IS FORECAST TO MOVE NNEWD DURING THE PERIOD.  SEE LATEST STATEMENTS
FROM NHC/TPC ON T.D. ERNESTO.

...E CENTRAL AND NERN FL INTO SERN COASTAL GA...

GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK OF T.D. ERNESTO BY NHC/TPC...OUTER BANDS OF
THE STORMS WILL MOSTLY BE EFFECTING COASTAL AREAS FROM MLB NWD
TOWARDS SAV.  THIS IS WHERE THE FAVORABLE QUADRANT FOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO DURING THE PERIOD.  LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES/WATERSPOUTS WILL BE
COASTAL AND MARINE ZONE AREAS OFF THE FL/SERN GA COAST.

...PARTS OF NC AND SC INTO ERN TN...

MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM EXTREME SERN VA WSWWD THRU SWRN NC INTO CENTRAL MS.  VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AREA OF BEST INSOLATION WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY AND S OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE AIR MASS HAS ALREADY
DESTABILIZED WITH MLCAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG.  THERE IS ALSO THE
PRESENCE OF 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR EFFECTIVE LOCATED IN FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL JET ENTRANCE REGION TO ENHANCE UVVS ACROSS THIS AREA
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. THUS...MULTICELLULAR STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WET
MICROBURSTS.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...

MODELS GENERATE AREA OF POSSIBLE CONVECTION OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  ANALYSIS OF FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWED VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES NEAR/AROUND 9C/KM ...YET
WITH A HIGH LFC AND DRYING IN LOW/MID LEVELS BY THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.  THUS...WOULD EXPECT THAT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.

..MCCARTHY/JEWELL.. 08/30/2006