[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 271232
SWODY1
SPC AC 271230

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0730 AM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

VALID 271300Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS SE PA/MD/DE/NJ...

...HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...
A COLD CORE MID LEVEL LOW OVER NW CO WILL PROGRESS EWD TO NE CO BY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE ACROSS NEB/KS INTO TONIGHT.  A BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN CO/NE NM AND
SPREAD ESEWD INTO WRN KS AND THE TX PANHANDLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS MID LEVEL WAVE.  THOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY STEEP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  RESIDUAL
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 55-60 F FROM NE NM/NW TX PANHANDLE INTO
ERN CO/WRN KS AND SURFACE HEATING IN THE WAKE OF A CONVECTIVE BAND
THIS MORNING SHOULD SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG.  DEEP
LAYER WIND FIELDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND/OR SUPERCELLS...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. 

...SE PA/NJ AREA TODAY...
REMNANT MCV IS MOVING EWD OVER CENTRAL OH THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD
CONTINUE ACROSS PA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE INTERACTING WITH A WARM
FRONT THAT SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY NWD ACROSS PA/NJ.  THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS IN QUESTION GIVEN THE ONGOING
CONVECTION AND RATHER THICK CLOUD COVER FROM SE PA INTO OH. 
HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG SURFACE HEATING.  OBSERVED
AND FORECAST HODOGRAPHS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS INVOF THE
WARM FRONT TODAY...WHERE A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS
AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.  

...OK/AR/MO TODAY...
A SURFACE FRONT NEAR I-44 IN MO/OK WILL MOVE LITTLE THIS
PERIOD...WITH WEAK WAVE DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED ALONG THE FRONT FROM
CENTRAL/NE OK INTO SE KS IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL
TROUGH FROM CO.  WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FROM SATURDAY EVENING INTO
THIS MORNING PRODUCED CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS THAT NOW EXTEND FROM
CENTRAL TX ACROSS SE OK/NW AR INTO SRN MO...AS WELL AS AN MCV THAT
IS PROGRESSING NEWD OVER NE OK.  THOUGH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
SHOULD BECOME MORE DIFFUSE ACROSS OK/AR/MO AS CONVECTION DIMINISHES
THIS MORNING...THE MCV MAY PERSIST AND FOCUS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY ACROSS NE OK/SRN MO/NW AR.  GRADUAL
MOISTENING OF THE LOW-MID LEVELS SUGGEST THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS GREAT AS OBSERVED THE PAST
TWO DAYS ACROSS THE OK AREA...THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
DOWNBURSTS SHOULD BECOME RATHER MARGINAL.

..THOMPSON/TAYLOR.. 08/27/2006