[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 270102
SWODY1
SPC AC 270100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2006

VALID 270100Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE OH VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTION OF SERN CO...

...NWRN TX THROUGH CNTRL OK AND SERN KS...

NUMEROUS STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF COLD FRONT AND
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM NWRN TX NEWD THROUGH OK INTO SERN
KS. THE 00Z RAOB FROM NORMAN SHOWS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE IN THIS REGION...AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
SPREADS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SOME HAIL
MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. ACTIVITY IS MOSTLY MULTICELL
IN CHARACTER. HOWEVER...AN ELEVATED LEFT MOVING SUPERCELL WAS
OBSERVED MOVING THROUGH NRN OK N OF THE FRONT DURING THE PAST HOUR
WHERE SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW IS CONTRIBUTING TO BULK
EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 35 KT. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES
TONIGHT...WARM SECTOR LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO SLY
AT 20-25 KT. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT AND SUPPORT CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS SEVERE
THREAT MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS.

...GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY THROUGH MID ATLANTIC...

SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT
ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH ERN IL INTO IND.
LATEST VWP DATA SHOW THE SLY LOW LEVEL JET HAS INCREASED TO 40 KT IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES. UPDRAFT ROTATION HAS
RECENTLY BEEN OBSERVED IN A FEW OF THE STORMS. THREAT WILL EXIST FOR
AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WITH ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELL NEXT
FEW HOURS. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND POOR
LAPSE RATES. OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS SRN MI. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

...CO...

STORMS MOVING THROUGH ERN CO MAY REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND AS IT
APPROACHES THE KS BORDER WHERE INSTABILITY IS MORE LIMITED.

..DIAL.. 08/27/2006