[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 161246
SWODY1
SPC AC 161244

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 AM CDT WED AUG 16 2006

VALID 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN ND AND
NORTHWEST MN...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEB/KS...

LARGE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OH
VALLEY TODAY...WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING FROM THE NRN
CALIFORNIA COAST...ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES...INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.  THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
NATION IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LOW TODAY.  HOWEVER...THERE ARE A
FEW LOCALIZED AREAS WHERE GREATER THREATS OF HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS
WILL EXIST.

...ND/MN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RELATIVELY FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
NOW OVER EASTERN MT.  THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS ND
TODAY...WITH ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM EXTREME
NORTHWEST MN INTO CENTRAL SD BY 00Z.  THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S AND POCKETS OF
HEATING.  MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT
OVER EASTERN ND AND SPREAD INTO MN THIS EVENING.  VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES IN THIS REGION WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT
MOVES INTO MN DUE TO MORE STABLE AIRMASS.

...NEB/KS...
SURFACE WARM FRONT IS SLOWLY RETREATING NORTHWARD ACROSS KS THIS
MORNING.  THE AIRMASS SOUTH OF FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90F AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW A DEEP-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.  AMPLE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THIS AREA AND CONVERGENCE ALONG WEAK FRONT WILL
PROMOTE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS.  ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET.

...MT/ID...
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING INLAND OVER NORTHERN
CA.  THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND AFFECT PORTIONS
OF ID/MT THIS AFTERNOON.  FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION...ALONG WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL
HELP INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL ID/WESTERN
MT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL WINDS AND INVERTED-V
PROFILES WILL ENHANCE THE RISK OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER
CELLS.

...GULF COAST...
WEAK UPPER LOW IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS FL THIS MORNING. BAND
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM
NORTHERN GA/AL TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.  THIS REGION WILL LIKELY
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM WELL
INTO THE 90S.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM SOUTHEAST
LA INTO SOUTHWEST GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE.  WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH MORE INTENSE CELLS.

..HART/LEVIT.. 08/16/2006