[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 160057
SWODY1
SPC AC 160055

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 PM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006

VALID 160100Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SD...SERN ND AND WRN
MN...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ALOFT...WITH TROUGH
WEAKENING/EJECTING ACROSS QUE AND NEW ENGLAND...MEAN RIDGE SHIFTING
EWD OVER NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...AND NERN PACIFIC TROUGH
DIGGING ESEWD INTO PACIFIC NW. AT SFC...COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM
SRN  DELMARVA PENINSULA SWWD THROUGH SRN APPALACHIANS...BECOMING
QUASISTATIONARY WWD ACROSS AR...THEN DIFFUSE AND CONVECTIVELY
MODULATED WARM FRONT OVER PORTIONS NRN OK/SRN KS.  LEESIDE
CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES OVER NRN HIGH PLAINS...WHERE SEVERAL WEAK LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS EVIDENT EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAVE CONSOLIDATED
INTO TWO MAIN LOWS...INVOF NERN AND SERN CORNERS OF MT.  WARM FRONT
IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ACROSS NRN SD...AND SHOULD LIFT NWD INTO
SRN ND AND ACROSS WRN MN OVERNIGHT.

...NRN PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY...
PRIMARY UNCONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT WILL OCCUR THROUGH APPROXIMATELY
05Z...ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN...OR UPSCALE EVOLUTION OF...TWO PRIMARY NODES OF DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT -- OVER NERN SD/WRN MN AND OVER SWRN ND.  REF
SPC WW 722 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR SHORT-TERM FCST
DETAILS.  SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MCS TO EVOLVE OVERNIGHT INVOF
NOSE OF INCREASINGLY MOIST LLJ OVER SD...IN ZONE OF STRONGEST LOW
LEVEL WAA AND MOIST ADVECTION ABOVE SFC.  HOWEVER AVAILABLE RAOB
DATA AND RUC PROGS INDICATE OPTIMAL 850 MB DEW POINTS MAY NOT REACH
THIS AREA UNTIL AFTER 06Z.  THIS CASTS DOUBT ON PERSISTENCE OF
CURRENT OUTFLOW-DOMINANT CONVECTION ONCE BOUNDARY LAYER MORE
STRONGLY COOLS/DECOUPLES AND REDUCES SBCAPE.

...SERN CONUS...
PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN FOR STG...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING GUSTS THROUGH
REMAINDER EVENING WILL BE AREA ALONG AND S OF ONGOING CLUSTER OF
ORGANIZED MULTICELLS...NOW MOVING SWD ACROSS AL AND SRN MS.  AIR
MASS BETWEEN THIS ACTIVITY AND GULF COAST WILL REMAIN FAVORABLY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH SFC DEW POINTS 70S F...AND MLCAPES 1500-2000
J/KG PER MODIFIED TLH RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS NEAR SVR LEVELS MAY PERSIST ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS ELSEWHERE ALONG
AND S OF FRONTAL ZONE...FROM OK TO ATLANTIC COAST...HOWEVER THIS
POTENTIAL IS BECOMING TOO BRIEF/ISOLATED TO WARRANT SVR
PROBABILITIES.

..EDWARDS.. 08/16/2006