[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 152003
SWODY1
SPC AC 152002

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006

VALID 152000Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS EXTREME ERN WY...NWRN
NEB...SD...SERN ND...WRN MN...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MIDDLE-UPPER LEVELS...PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM PATTERN WILL BE
DOMINATED BY WEAKENING TROUGH OVER QUE/NERN CONUS...AND AMPLIFYING
TROUGH MOVING SEWD INTO PACIFIC NW STATES.  MEAN RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
SHIFTING EWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS TOWARD UPPER MS VALLEY. WEAK SRN
STREAM PERTURBATIONS NOW OVER W TX AND NM ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD
ACROSS SRN ROCKIES AND SRN PLAINS THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD.  AT
SFC...COLD FRONT IS EVIDENT FROM DELMARVA PENINSULA SWWD THROUGH SRN
APPALACHIANS...BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY WWD ACROSS AR...THEN WARM
FRONT ACROSS OK.  LEESIDE CYCLOGENESIS IS EVIDENT ACROSS NRN HIGH
PLAINS...WITH SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS FROM SRN SASK SEWD
ACROSS SD.  FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS SRN SASK AND NRN MT SHOULD RESULT
IN COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD OVER ERN MT AND INTO NWRN ND BY 16/12Z.

...NRN PLAINS...
INITIALLY ELEVATED DEVELOPMENT EVIDENT ATTM OVER NERN SD MAY
CONTINUE AND MOVE EWD ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN MN THROUGH
REMAINDER EVENING.  ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MRGL WITH SFC DEW
POINTS MID 50S TO AROUND 60 F...STG SFC HEATING IN MODIFIED FCST
SOUNDINGS RENDERS SFC-BASED PARCELS AND INVERTED-V SHAPE TO BOUNDARY
LAYER THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN RUC FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW CONSIDERABLE VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND SUGGEST SOME
SUPERCELL POTENTIAL...WITH ORGANIZED MULTICELL CONVECTION ALSO
POSSIBLE.  THEREFORE POTENTIALLY DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL MAY
OCCUR WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY...AS WELL AS WITH SFC-BASED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING FARTHER W ACROSS ERN WY AND SWRN SD.  LATTER
ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN SOMEWHAT WEAKER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT BUT WILL
MOVE ALONG OR PARALLEL TO SFC MOIST AXIS -- ANALYZED ATTM FROM SERN
WY NEWD ACROSS BADLANDS OF SD...TO NERN CORNER SD AND INTO SWRN MN. 
SVR POTENTIAL MAY PERSIST AFTER DARK INVOF NOSE OF STRENGTHENING
LLJ...WHICH WILL ADVECT INCREASINGLY RICH MOISTURE NWD FROM SRN
PLAINS AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN A NARROW PLUME.

...SERN CONUS...SRN PLAINS...
SCATTERED TSTMS IN MULTICELL CLUSTERS ALREADY HAVE DEVELOPED IN BKN
BAND FROM CENTRAL VA SWWD TO ERN MS.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
SHIFT/EXPAND SWD AND SWWD THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON...AS
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS PROPAGATE INITIATION POTENTIAL DEEPER INTO
MARITIME/TROPICAL AIR MASS THAT CHARACTERIZES MUCH OF SERN CONUS. 
DEVELOPMENT ALSO IS EXPECTED ALONG AND S OF FRONT WWD ACROSS AR INTO
CENTRAL/ERN OK...WHERE STRONGEST HEATING IS OCCURRING. SFC DEW
POINTS MID 60S/MID 70S F AND INSOLATION WILL SUPPORT MLCAPES 
2500-4000 J/KG FROM NWRN GA INTO SERN OK...AMIDST WEAKENING CINH. 
WEAK DEEP-LAYER KINEMATIC PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT OVERALL
ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION IN THIS CORRIDOR.  PULSE AND MULTICELL
MODES ARE EXPECTED WITH SVR POTENTIAL BEING BRIEF AND
ISOLATED...THEREFORE PROBABILITIES REMAIN TOO LOW TO WARRANT
CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM.

..EDWARDS.. 08/15/2006