[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 150056
SWODY1
SPC AC 150054

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

VALID 150100Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS
VALLEY...

...HIGH PLAINS...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIFTING EWD
INTO WRN SD ATTM. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND JUST AHEAD OF A WELL-DEFINED
DRY SLOT. THE STORMS ARE FORMING ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL
MOIST AXIS IN A SMALL POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE
VALUES RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE SHOULD
SUSTAIN STRONG UPDRAFTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.

THE 00Z SOUNDING AT RAPID CITY SHOWS A STRONG VEERING WIND PROFILE
WHICH IS SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS ONGOING IN SW SD ATTM. THE CLUSTER OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF VERY STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IN ADDITION...0-3 KM LAPSE RATES IN SWRN SD
EXCEED 9.0 C/KM WHICH ALONG WITH THE SHEAR SUGGESTS THE THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS
THIS EVENING.

...MID MS VALLEY/SRN PLAINS...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
ONTARIO EXTENDING SWD INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION. NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE EXTENDING ENEWD FROM NRN OK ACROSS MO INTO THE LOWER OH
VALLEY. THE HIGHEST SFC DEWPOINTS AND STRONGEST INSTABILITY EXISTS
ACROSS NE AR...SE MO...NW TN AND WRN KY WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE
FROM 2500 TO 3000 J/KG ACCORDING TO RUC ANALYSIS. THE 00Z NASHVILLE
SOUNDING SHOWS ABOUT 25 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR WHICH COMBINED WITH THE
STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THE
THREAT SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.

...SRN AND CNTRL AZ...
A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING IN CNTRL
AZ. THE STORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG AND JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A
MOIST AXIS WHERE DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM 55 TO 65 F. MUCAPE VALUES
ABOVE 1500 J/KG AS SHOWN ON REGIONAL SOUNDINGS LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT
SPREADS MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND DAMAGE EARLY THIS EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 08/15/2006