[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 141229
SWODY1
SPC AC 141227

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0727 AM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

STRONG UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS MORNING...WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINING IN
PLACE THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN STATES.  A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.  OTHER
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST STATES.

...OH VALLEY...
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED CENTRAL WI INTO SOUTHERN
KS.  THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD...EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN OH INTO SOUTHERN MO BY LATE AFTERNOON.  AMPLE MOISTURE
AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT.  HOWEVER...STRONGER
DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL RESIDE FROM OH NORTHWARD...WHERE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AOB 1000 J/KG OF CAPE WILL BE PRESENT. 
FROM THERE SOUTHWARD INTO KY...GREATER DAYTIME HEATING AND HIGHER
DEWPOINTS WILL PROMOTE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.  BUT RATHER
WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED IN THIS REGION.  THEREFORE...PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT ORGANIZED/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE
RATHER LOW TODAY.  NEVERTHELESS...GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST CELLS TODAY ALONG THE FRONT.

...AR/OK/TX...
HOT...HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AGAIN TODAY ACROSS
THIS REGION WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S.  SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE TX PANHANDLE ACROSS OK
INTO AR...ALONG AND SOUTH OF FRONT.  STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MODERATE CAPE VALUES WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS
IN STRONGER CELLS.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A WEAK UPPER VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER
WESTERN WY.  THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD...AND
AFFECT THE FOOTHILLS AND FRONT RANGE OF SOUTHEAST WY/NORTHEAST CO
THIS AFTERNOON.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHWEST SD DURING THE EVENING.  ISOLATED STORMS IN THIS AREA COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.

...AZ...
NORTHEAST UPPER FLOW PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED OVER AZ TODAY...ON EAST
SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR YUM. DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN AZ AND MUCH OF NM...WHERE SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.  EAST/NORTHEAST UPPER FLOW MAY
ALLOW THIS ACTIVITY TO SPREAD INTO LOWER DESERTS FROM PHX-TUS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS COULD OCCUR NEAR
STRONGER STORMS.

..HART/TAYLOR.. 08/14/2006