[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 130055
SWODY1
SPC AC 130053

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2006

VALID 130100Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS TO
THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

LARGE SCALE ASCENT APPEARS TO BE OVERSPREADING WRN EDGE OF DEEP
MOIST PLUME IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS...PER RECENT
EXPANDING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM NERN CO INTO SWRN SD. 
ADDITIONALLY...A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED AHEAD OF
MAIN SHORTWAVE FROM SERN MT INTO NWRN CO COINCIDENT WITH INCREASING
ZONE OF ASCENT...PRODUCING ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AT TIMES OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WY.  WITH TIME...UPDRAFTS WILL INTERACT WITH
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER DOWNSTREAM WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR AN EXPANDING
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NWRN NEB INTO WRN SD/SCNTRL ND ALONG MAIN
FRONTAL ZONE.  HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY
AS IT SPREADS EWD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DOWNSTREAM...AN ELONGATED MCS HAS EVOLVED FROM ERN SD INTO WCNTRL MN
WITHIN DEEP MID-HIGH LEVEL MOIST PLUME THAT EXTENDS INTO LOW
LATITUDE REGIONS OF THE SWRN U.S./NWRN MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS
SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD AHEAD OF LEAD SPEED MAX/SHORTWAVE THAT EJECTED
ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING.  LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY STEEP ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH SUBSTANTIAL INHIBITION
NOTED AT BOTH MPX AND OMA ON 00Z SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING.  ALTHOUGH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR CERTAINLY SUPPORTS STORM ROTATION...CURRENT STORM
MODE WOULD SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL MAINTAIN ITS MCS-TYPE CHARACTER AS
IT SPREADS INTO SWRN PORTIONS OF MN.

..DARROW.. 08/13/2006