[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 050052
SWODY1
SPC AC 050051

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT FRI AUG 04 2006

VALID 050100Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS...

...NRN PLAINS...
MODEST QG-FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL
CONTINUE TO LOCALLY OVERCOME STRONG INHIBITION AND MAINTAIN THE
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SEVERE TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL TO ERN DAKOTAS
TONIGHT. EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL DIG SEWD
ACROSS NERN MT AND NWRN ND THROUGH DAYBREAK. FORCING/COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY SPUR ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF NWRN/NRN ND INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

FARTHER EAST...LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING OVER THE
DAKOTAS MAY ENHANCE WARM ADVECTION AND MASS TRANSPORT ON THE EDGE OF
THE CAP FROM NRN MN TO WRN SECTIONS OF THE U.P. OF MI/LAKE SUPERIOR.
A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH SOME HAIL POTENTIAL MAY SPREAD ACROSS THESE
AREAS OVERNIGHT.

...NORTHEAST GULF COAST...
LARGE CLUSTER OF MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION HAS GROWN UPSCALE AND WAS
DRIFTING SWWD ACROSS SWRN GA AND NRN FL THIS EVENING. THIS COMPLEX
OF STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF ISOLATED WET
DOWNBURSTS FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER HOUR OR SO GIVEN VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION AND SOME LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT FROM UPPER LOW TRACKING WWD ACROSS FL.

...SOUTHEAST...
ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO PERSIST...AND MAY INCREASE
SOMEWHAT...IN WEAKLY SHEARED BUT VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM NRN GA
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND SERN VA. RESIDUAL COLD FRONT AND LEE
TROUGH...IN ADDITION TO NUMEROUS COMPOSITE OUTFLOW AND SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES...MAY CONTINUE TO AID WIDELY SCATTERED UPDRAFT/PULSE
STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE REGION ALSO LIES BENEATH FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT
FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WHICH COULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT DESPITE TIME OF DAY.

...ERN OK/SWRN AR...
MESOSCALE ASCENT BEHIND LEADING EDGE OF WWD MOVING CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW FROM ERN OK INTO SWRN AR MAY CONTINUE TO PROMOTE PULSE STORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THESE AREAS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. BRIEF WIND
DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST BENEATH UPDRAFTS FORMING OR
DRIFTING INTO HOT AND DEEPLY MIXED AIR MASS AROUND THE ARKLATEX OVER
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

...NRN NEW ENGLAND...
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING WARM AND WEAKLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER MAINE HAS RESULTED IN AN ARC OF STRONG STORMS
OVER THIS REGION SINCE LATE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL JET STREAK AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SEWD THROUGH TONIGHT AS
BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES INCREASINGLY STABLE. LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STRONGER CORES OVER THE NEXT HOUR
BUT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE LOW.

..CARBIN.. 08/05/2006