[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 021257
SWODY1
SPC AC 021256

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 AM CDT WED AUG 02 2006

VALID 021300Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLNS THROUGH THE
MID MS VLY/GRT LKS TO NRN NEW ENGLAND...

...SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY STRONG ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NRN THIRD OF THE
NATION AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVE IMPULSES TEMPORARILY FLATTEN WRN FLANK
OF BERMUDA RIDGE.  ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES...NOW OVER WI...WILL
MOVE E ACROSS NRN MI INTO SRN QUEBEC BY LATE TONIGHT.  FARTHER
SE...MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT SLOWLY E ACROSS KS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING GRT LKS IMPULSE WILL TRACK E ACROSS NRN MI
AND SRN ONTARIO LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS TRAILING COLD FRONT SETTLES
SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE MID MS VLY AND CNTRL PLNS.  E OF THE LOW...A
FRONT SHOULD REMAIN MORE OR LESS STATIONARY EWD INTO NRN NEW
ENGLAND.

...UPR GRT LKS TO NRN NEW ENGLAND...
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE/DEVELOP E ALONG STALLED
FRONTAL ZONE FROM WI/NRN MI E ACROSS SRN ONTARIO/UPSTATE NY INTO NRN
ENGLAND TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ALONG AND N OF FRONT.  BUT SURFACE HEATING SHOULD
SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM SRN/CNTRL WI E ACROSS
CNTRL/SRN LOWER MI...AND POSSIBLY OVER UPSTATE NY/NWRN NEW ENGLAND
BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW 70S/ WILL COMPENSATE FOR RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
TO YIELD MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG.  COUPLED WITH DEEP...MODERATE TO
STRONG /40+ KT/ UNIDIRECTIONAL CLOUD LAYER FLOW...SETUP SHOULD
PROMOTE N/S BOWING SEGMENTS AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH
DAMAGING WIND/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.  DEPENDING ON STORM-SCALE
EVOLUTION ...FAIRLY CONCENTRATED WIND DAMAGE MAY AFFECT LWR MI AND
PARTS OF WI/NRN IL TODAY.  FARTHER E...A FINAL ROUND OF STORMS MAY
AFFECT UPSTATE NY/NW NEW ENGLAND EARLY THURSDAY AS LLJ STRENGTHENS
DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING SURFACE WAVE.

...CNTRL PLNS TO MID MS VLY...
SURFACE HEATING EXPECTED TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL STRONG
TO SEVERE STORM CLUSTERS ALONG COLD FRONT/LEE TROUGH FROM THE TX/OK
PANHANDLE REGION THROUGH PARTS OF KS AND NW MO INTO SRN IA/NRN IL. 
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE OF 1500-2500
J/KG.  FORCING FOR ASCENT...WHILE WEAKER THAN OVER THE GRT
LKS...WILL BE ENHANCED BY SMALL SCALE DISTURBANCES WITHIN UPR LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS.  DEEP WIND PROFILES OVER REGION WILL BE LESS
UNIDIRECTIONAL THAN OVER THE GREAT LKS/NORTHEAST...BUT OVERALL
MAGNITUDES WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK /AOB 25-30 KTS/.  COUPLED WITH
FAIRLY LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND LARGELY LINEAR FORCING
FOR ASCENT...STORMS SHOULD FAIRLY QUICKLY ORGANIZE INTO 
BANDS/CLUSTERS.  THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING
WIND...AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..CORFIDI.. 08/02/2006