[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 020545
SWODY1
SPC AC 020543

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 AM CDT WED AUG 02 2006

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM KS NEWD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND...

...SYNOPSIS...

QUASI-ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST OVER THE NRN TIER OF STATES
DURING THE DAY ONE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THIS PATTERN.  ONE SUCH IMPULSE WILL TRANSLATE EWD FROM WI
THROUGH THE U.P./NRN LOWER MI INTO SRN QUEBEC BY LATE TONIGHT. 
MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EWD ACROSS KS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO GREAT LAKES IMPULSE
WILL DEVELOP EWD FROM CNTRL WI TO ERN LAKE HURON ALONG BAROCLINIC
ZONE EXTENDING EWD THROUGH NRN NEW ENGLAND.  IN THE WAKE OF THIS
LOW...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SWD THROUGH THE MID/LOWER
MO VALLEY TO SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE OVER CNTRL/ERN KS.

...GREAT LAKES REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND...

CLUSTERS OF NOCTURNAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PROGRESS AT THE
ONSET OF THE PERIOD FROM VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW EWD ALONG LOW-LEVEL
WAA ZONE FROM ERN MN INTO THE U.P. AND PARTS OF LOWER MI.  THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY N OF FRONTAL
ZONE WITH ADDITIONAL...MORE DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY BY
AFTERNOON WITHIN DESTABILIZING AIR MASS TO THE S FROM PARTS OF SRN
WI EWD ACROSS CNTRL/SRN LOWER MI.  HERE...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1500-2500 J/KG. LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH 30-40 KTS OF DEEP SHEAR WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME
HAIL.

FARTHER TO THE E OVER NEW ENGLAND...ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BOTH IN INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL
WAA REGIME AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW...AS WELL AS WITH APPROACH OF
SURFACE LOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.  HERE TOO...KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS
CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP WLY TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WITH 35-45 KTS OF DEEP
SHEAR...SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING BOWS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

...MIDWEST INTO KS...

ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ALONG COLD FRONT FROM NRN IL/SRN IA WWD INTO
KS.  STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT STEEPING OF LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2500 J/KG. 
FORCING WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK OVER THE MIDWEST...POTENTIALLY
LIMITING STORM COVERAGE.  HOWEVER FARTHER TO THE W OVER KS...FORCING
FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHEAR AXIS WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE.

WHILE SLIGHTLY GREATER LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE IS FORECAST
AHEAD OF SECONDARY SURFACE LOW ACROSS ERN KS INTO NWRN
MO...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN QUITE MARGINAL /AOB 25-30 KTS/.
THUS EXPECT THAT STORMS WILL REMAIN LARGELY MULTICELLULAR WITH THE
PRIMARY THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.

..MEAD/JEWELL.. 08/02/2006