[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 020058
SWODY1
SPC AC 020056

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT TUE AUG 01 2006

VALID 020100Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM THE MID MO VALLEY
INTO PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY INTO NRN/CNTRL NEW ENGLAND...

...MID MO VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...

EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS PRIMARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING
NEWD THROUGH WY WITH SEVERAL WEAKER DOWNSTREAM IMPULSES...TWO OF
WHICH APPEAR TO BE OVER NRN WI AND CNTRL NEB.  IN THE
LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER CNTRL NEB WITH AN
ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NEWD THROUGH SWRN MN/CNTRL WI
INTO NRN LOWER MI.  TRAILING PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY THEN EXTENDED
SWWD INTO WRN KS.

AS OF 0015Z...MOST CONCENTRATED CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
EXIST OVER NERN NEB/NWRN IA AND NRN LAKE MI WITHIN ZONES OF STRONGER
LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS.  00Z OAX SOUNDING INDICATES THAT AMBIENT AIR MASS OVER THE
MID MO VALLEY REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE OWING TO MOIST
BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH
MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG.  FARTHER TO THE NE...MORE WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION HAVE LIMITED DESTABILIZATION OVER SERN MN
INTO NRN/CNTRL WI...THOUGH MLCAPES STILL REMAIN AROUND 1000 J/KG. 
INSTABILITY THEN INCREASES OVER LOWER MI OWING TO STRONGER DAYTIME
HEATING WITH 00Z APX SOUNDING INDICATING MLCAPES OF AROUND 2000
J/KG.

EXPECT GREATEST SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH 03-05Z OVER
PORTIONS OF NRN IA INTO SRN MN AND PARTS OF NRN LOWER MI WHERE AIR
MASS REMAINS MOST UNSTABLE.  00Z OAX HODOGRAPH INDICATED MODEST
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-200 M2/S2.  HOWEVER...WIND
FIELDS DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE 500 MB...SUGGESTING THAT STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN OUTFLOW DOMINANT.  WHILE A BRIEF TORNADO IS POSSIBLE
WITH ANY ROTATING STORMS EARLY IN THEIR LIFE CYCLE... SEVERE HAIL
AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. WIND
PROFILES ARE MUCH MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT STORM FORWARD PROPAGATION WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND SOME HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.

...NEW ENGLAND...

TSTMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS EVENING E
OF WARM FRONT /NOW ALONG THE NH-ME BORDER/ OVER PORTIONS OF NWRN ME
WITH A MORE ORGANIZED QUASI-LINEAR MCS OVER SRN QUEBEC MOVING
305/40-50 KTS. 00Z ALB SOUNDING INDICATES THAT AIR MASS STREAMING
INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT IS MODERATE TO STRONGLY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3500 J/KG...WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN SRN
QUEBEC MCS SEWD THROUGH PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.
 VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES WITH CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING WINDS
APPEARING LIKELY IN ADDITION TO SOME LARGE HAIL.

FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 1696.

..MEAD.. 08/02/2006