[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 010053
SWODY1
SPC AC 010051

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT MON JUL 31 2006

VALID 010100Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF UPSTATE
NY INTO WRN/CNTRL NEW ENGLAND...

...UPPER GREAT LAKES...

CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE ONGOING THIS EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE ARROWHEAD SWWD INTO ERN SD WITHIN
MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES
OF 1500-3500 J/KG.  HIGH RESOLUTION RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF FRONTAL SURGE AND COLD POOL GENERATION HAVE LARGELY
UNDERCUT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY...AND THIS TEND SHOULD LIMIT A MORE
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.  00Z SOUNDINGS FROM INL/MPX INDICATE THAT
STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS DISPLACED TO THE N OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS E-CNTRL MN INTO NRN WI.

BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...IT APPEARS THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT
WILL EXIST FROM PORTIONS OF CNTRL MN EWD INTO NWRN WI WHERE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL BE CO-LOCATED WITH SRN FRINGE OF
MARGINALLY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR.  THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL
REMAIN CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME SEVERE HAIL.

...PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NY INTO WRN/CNTRL NEW ENGLAND...

VISIBLE SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE THE GRADUAL
ORGANIZATION OF A NW-SE ORIENTED BAND OF TSTMS FROM SWRN QUEBEC INTO
THE NRN ADIRONDACKS...DRIVEN LARGELY BY LOW-LEVEL WAA N OF
RETREATING SURFACE WARM FRONT. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM BUF AND ALB SHOW
THAT INSTABILITY REMAINS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL OWING TO THE WEAK
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG. HOWEVER
THESE SOUNDINGS AND BURLINGTON VT VWP INDICATE STRONG LOW-LEVEL
VEERING WITH HEIGHT WITH 45-55 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.

STRENGTHENING WLY LLJ FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY SHOULD SUPPORT REGENERATIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT FROM
SWRN QUEBEC INTO PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. 
DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...THE RELATIVELY STRONG SHEAR
SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND
BOWING STRUCTURES/ CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME
HAIL.

..MEAD.. 08/01/2006