[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 301239
SWODY1
SPC AC 301236

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 AM CDT WED AUG 30 2006

VALID 301300Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...E CENTRAL FL TODAY...
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS DRIFTING NWD OVER S FL THIS MORNING...AND
IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE E CENTRAL FL COAST BY EARLY TONIGHT
/SEE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION/.  LOCAL VWP/S
SHOW A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SOMEWHAT ENHANCED VERTICAL SHEAR COLOCATED
WITH A BROKEN OUTER CONVECTIVE BAND BETWEEN PBI AND MLB.  THIS BAND
SHOULD SHIFT NWD INTO THE MLB-DAB AREAS DURING THE DAY...WHERE AN
ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO COULD OCCUR.  HOWEVER...THE RATHER POOR
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE STORM AND MODEST WIND FIELDS SUGGEST
THAT ANY TORNADO THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL.  

...SE STATES TODAY...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH ALONG AN AXIS FROM NW AR TO NRN IL THIS MORNING
WILL DRIFT ESEWD OVER THE OH/MS VALLEYS THROUGH TONIGHT.  AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SWD ACROSS VA TOWARD NC AS SURFACE
PRESSURE RISE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND IN THE WAKE OF A NRN STREAM TROUGH.
 THE FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE VERY SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS.  A MOIST/TROPICAL AIR MASS IS IN PLACE
E OF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE PERIOD ACROSS THE SE STATES.  DESPITE MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...DAYTIME HEATING WITHIN CLOUD BREAKS COULD ALLOW MLCAPE
VALUES TO REACH 1500-2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
BE RATHER WEAK IN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR WHERE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
GREATER...WITH RELATIVELY STRONGER SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE BELT OF 25-30 KT MID LEVEL FLOW.  THE MODEST
SHEAR/INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT MULTICELL STORMS WITH ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS TODAY FROM AL TO THE CAROLINAS/SRN VA.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...
A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER WA/ORE THIS MORNING...AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT...WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER ID/MT/NW WY BY TONIGHT. 
MEANWHILE...A LEE CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS SE MT DOWNSTREAM FROM
THE MID LEVEL WAVE.  LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED ACROSS THE PLAINS
IN THE WAKE OF A PRIOR FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.  A PLUME OF STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL OVERSPREAD THE MARGINALLY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER ALONG AND E OF THE LEE TROUGH IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL
WAVE.  THE POOR MOISTURE AND SMALL CAPE SUGGEST THAT SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION WILL BE SPARSE AND LIKELY CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE LEE
CYCLONE/TROUGH WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO THE 90S. 
OTHER ELEVATED STORMS MAY FORM IN A NARROW POST-FRONTAL BAND TONIGHT
ACROSS NE MT/NW ND IN CONJUCTION WITH MID LEVEL MOISTENING AND
COOLING OF THE COLUMN...THOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE
OVERALL CONVECTIVE THREAT.

..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 08/30/2006