[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 300602
SWODY1
SPC AC 300600

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT WED AUG 30 2006

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD
ACROSS THE NWRN CONUS. THIS TROUGH WILL IMPINGE ON A SECOND TROUGH
OVER THE MIDWEST...WHOSE EWD PROGRESS WILL BE HINDERED BY ERNESTO
MOVING NWD ACROSS FL AND INTO THE SWRN ATLANTIC.  

THOUGH A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MT/WY AND APPROACH THE NRN
PLAINS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD...CONVECTIVE THREAT
SHOULD BE LIMITED BY DRY/CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER.  ELSEWHERE...WEAK
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LINGER FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO GA/AL...BUT WEAK
LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING PRECIPITATION WITHIN TROPICAL
AIRMASS SPREADING NWD SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION AND
THUS SEVERE POTENTIAL.

...ERN FL PENINSULA...
RELATIVELY STRONG/WEAKLY-VEERING FLOW IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE
WITHIN THE NERN QUADRANT OF ERNESTO WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ERN HALF
OF THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.  GIVEN
VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...SHEAR MAY SUPPORT LOW-LEVEL ROTATION
WITHIN STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS -- AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED/BRIEF
TORNADO.  THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS ERNESTO MOVES OFF THE
E CENTRAL FL COAST.

...THE CAROLINAS...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND SHOULD CONTINUE WITHIN TROPICAL
AIRMASS SPREADING NWD AHEAD OF ERNESTO.  WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION...BUT SLIGHTLY-ENHANCED BELT OF WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
ON SERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH MAY SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED
STORMS...AND ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG/GUSTY WINDS.

..GOSS.. 08/30/2006