[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 281631
SWODY1
SPC AC 281630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT MON AUG 28 2006

VALID 281630Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN NEB EXPECTED DEAMPLIFY
SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES E INTO ERN IA BY 12Z TUESDAY.  AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK WAVE NOW IN CNTRL IL SHOULD DRIFT E ALONG STALLED
FRONT EXTENDING E INTO SRN OH. IN WAKE OF THE LOW...COLD FRONT
SHOULD SETTLE SLOWLY SE ACROSS PARTS OF TX/OK/AR AND LWR TN/OH VLYS.


...OH VLY/CNTRL APLCNS...
VERY MOIST /PWS AOA 2 INCHES/...WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL PREVAIL
FROM THE LWR OH VLY NEWD INTO FAR WRN PA/WV TODAY...WHERE MODEST
SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND S OF STALLED SURFACE FRONT.

AREA VWPS...MORNING SOUNDINGS AND LATEST MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST
THAT A BAND OF 30+ KT WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST/SPREAD NEWD 
UP THE OH VLY ON SERN FRINGE OF NEB/IA SHORTWAVE IMPULSE.  PRESENCE
OF THIS WEAK JET STREAK WILL YIELD MODERATE...UNIDIRECTIONAL CLOUD
LAYER WIND PROFILES WITH ANY STORMS FORMING IN WARM SECTOR.  COUPLED
WITH HI PWS...SETUP MAY PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SMALL SCALE
BOWING SEGMENTS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND ACROSS KY/SRN WV.

A BIT FARTHER N...WEAK BUT BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ENLARGE LOW
LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE INVOF STATIONARY FRONT FROM CNTRL/SRN IND
ENE INTO CNTRL/SRN OH...WRN WV AND NRN KY.  STORMS LIKELY TO FORM IN
AREA OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM IL/IND
SURFACE WAVE MAY DEVELOP WEAK LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND YIELD A
TORNADO OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.  BUT
LIMITED DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP SUCH ANY ACTIVITY BRIEF/
ISOLATED.

..CORFIDI/GRAMS.. 08/28/2006