[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 271948
SWODY1
SPC AC 271947

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0247 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

VALID 272000Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND
SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...

...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...

DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH HEIGHT FALLS/DYNAMIC COOLING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACH OF UPPER LOW THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN
CO INTO WRN KS AND SWD INTO THE OK/TX PNHDLS AND NERN NM.  CONTINUED
HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT FURTHER DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG.  WHILE MORNING RAOB DATA
INDICATED 25-30 KT FLOW AT 500 MB ACROSS CO...UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
WIND FIELDS WERE STRONGER /55-65 KTS/...WHICH WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AS EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS STRENGTHEN TO
45-55 KTS.

VISIBLE SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOW EARLY STORM
DEVELOPMENT FROM NERN CO/SWRN NEB/NWRN KS SSWWD TOWARD THE RATON
MESA.  INCREASING FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND DECREASING
STATIC STABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS. STORMS MAY MERGE INTO CLUSTERS THIS EVENING WITH SOME
DAMAGING WIND THREAT OVER WRN KS INTO THE PNHDLS.

FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 1902.

...MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS EWD ALONG THE OH RIVER...

CLUSTERS OF TSTMS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON FROM NE OF EVV SWWD ACROSS
SRN MO/NRN AR WITHIN A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WHERE MLCAPES HAVE
INCREASED TO 2000 J/KG.  LONG LOOP RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE
PRESENCE OF AN MCV OVER SWRN MO WHICH WILL CONTINUE EWD THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LIKELY ENHANCING DOWNSTREAM CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND S OF LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.  AREA
PROFILERS/VWPS INDICATE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK
THOUGH THERE IS SOME LOW-LEVEL VEERING WITH HEIGHT IN THE LOWEST 3-4
KM AGL.  GIVEN THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT THE PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE MODE TO REMAIN MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE A COLD POOL.

FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 1901.

...MID ATLANTIC COAST...

A SOMEWHAT MORE CONDITIONAL THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
INVOF OF WARM OR QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WEAK
SURFACE LOW OVER NERN OH SEWD THROUGH W-CNTRL PA TO CNTRL NJ. 
PRIMARY CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH BELT OF FORCING FOR ASCENT
ATTENDANT TO SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WRN PA IS CURRENTLY
SPREADING E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO CNTRL PARTS OF MD/VA. 
HOWEVER...AIR MASS S OF BOUNDARY HAS WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S WHICH IS RESULTING IN MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG.

STORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER FAR WRN PA/WV WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EWD/SEWD LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH AN INHERENT
SEVERE THREAT INCREASING ACROSS SRN PA INTO MD/NRN VA AND DE. 
RELATIVELY STRONG VEERING IN THE LOW-LEVELS AND THE PRESENCE OF
30-35 KT WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS RESULTING IN SHEAR PROFILES
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF TORNADO.

..MEAD.. 08/27/2006