[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 261235
SWODY1
SPC AC 261233

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 AM CDT SAT AUG 26 2006

VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR NE IL...NW INDIANA...AND
SRN LOWER MI...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE TX PANHANDLE...NRN
OK...SE KS...NW AR...AND SW MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR NE UT...WRN CO...SW WY...

...SYNOPSIS...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN...WITHIN A SRN STREAM OF THE
WLYS...WILL MOVE SLOWLY ESEWD OVER UT TO WRN CO BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.  A SEPARATE WAVE IN THE NRN STREAM WILL PROGRESS EWD FROM
MANITOBA/WRN ONTARIO TOWARD WRN QUEBEC.  IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE
FLOW STREAMS...A LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS WNWWD FROM THE
NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION TO SRN LOWER MI...AND THEN SWWD ACROSS NRN
MO/NW OK TO ERN NM.  ONLY SLOW SEWD MOTION OF THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF THE NRN STREAM
TROUGH...AND THE MID ATLANTIC PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY.

...IL TO SRN LOWER MI...
A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER MO/WRN IL HAS PRODUCED AN MCV
OVER NE MO WHICH SHOULD MOVE ENEWD OVER IL TODAY AND INDIANA/OH
TONIGHT.  BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 68-72 F WILL SPREAD NEWD IN
ADVANCE OF A WEAK WAVE ON THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS NRN
IL...PROVIDING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG THE PATH OF THE MCV.  MODEST VERTICAL
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH MCV AND NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS LOWER MI
MAY SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS/MARGINAL SUPERCELLS TODAY.  DAMAGING
WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT...ALONG WITH MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL.

...SRN PLAINS...
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AND ONGOING CONVECTION HAS REDUCED MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OVER A BROAD AREA IMMEDIATELY N OF THE FRONT ACROSS
KS/MO...WITH THE STEEPER LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONFINED TO A
BAND ALONG AND S OF THE FRONT WHERE STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND DEEP
MIXING HAS OCCURRED THE PAST TWO DAYS. A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
SHOULD FORM ALONG THE FRONT AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THIS
AFTERNOON...NEAR THE SRN FRINGE OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION THIS
MORNING.  THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.  OVERALL...THE
SEVERE STORM THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL AND IS REDUCED COMPARED TO
FRIDAY.

...UT/CO AREA...
A BELT OF ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TODAY OVER NRN/ERN UT INTO WRN CO AND SW WY...IN ADVANCE
OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ESEWD FROM SW ID/NE NV.  STEEP LOW-MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 500 MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING -15 C WILL
SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL TODAY ACROSS NRN
UT.  THE STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED
STORM TYPES IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER NERN UT INTO WRN CO. 
HERE...THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS.

...MID ATLANTIC AREA...
CONVECTION AND AN ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY
THIS MORNING.  SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD OVER THIS AREA...WITH ONLY SPARSE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
ANTICIPATED NEAR THE NW-SE ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT.  VERY ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS OR HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT THE OVERALL
THREAT APPEARS INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK.

..THOMPSON/TAYLOR.. 08/26/2006