[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 172004
SWODY1
SPC AC 172002

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CDT THU AUG 17 2006

VALID 172000Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND
INTO THE DAKOTAS...

...SERN MT/NERN WY INTO THE DAKOTAS...
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS...WHERE STRONG
BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING IS RESULTING IN CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION
/1000 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/.  

CAPPING INVERSION S OF W-E BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER SD SHOULD CONTINUE
TO INHIBIT WARM-SECTOR CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER THE BLACK HILLS -- AS WELL AS NEAR AND N OF SURFACE FRONT FROM
NRN WY EWD INTO CENTRAL SD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS LOW-LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...STORMS SHOULD
INCREASE IN COVERAGE -- AND POSSIBLY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS.  

THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINS LIMITED S OF FRONT...ELY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW N OF FRONT COMBINED WITH INCREASE IN FLOW ALOFT AS UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES WILL YIELD SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.  ALONG WITH
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
-- PARTICULARLY IF STORMS ORGANIZE ON THE MESOSCALE AS WARM
ADVECTION INCREASES THIS EVENING.  

SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO EXTEND WWD INTO NRN WY AND SWD ACROSS ERN
WY...THOUGH LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT STORM
INTENSITY.

..GOSS.. 08/17/2006