[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 170100
SWODY1
SPC AC 170059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT WED AUG 16 2006

VALID 170100Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL ID AND WESTERN
MT...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FAR EASTERN
DAKOTAS/NORTHWEST MN...

....ID/MT...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS EVENING FEATURES POTENT UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS ORE/WA. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FEATURE HAS RESULTED IN A BROAD COVERAGE OF STRONG/OCCASIONALLY
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS ID/WESTERN MT SINCE THIS AFTERNOON. WITHIN A
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION VIA
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS/LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL TEND TO CURB
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY REMAINDER OF THE EVENING IN AN ALREADY WEAKLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS /REFERENCE 00Z GREAT FALLS AND GLASGOW MT RAOBS/.
NEVERTHELESS...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS SPREAD E/NE ACROSS MT.

...NORTHEAST SD/EASTERN ND/NORTHWEST MN...
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN VICINITY OF PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AND SOUTHWARD MOVING WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS ND. 00Z OBSERVED
ABERDEEN RAOB IS INDICATIVE OF THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE/ADEQUATELY
SHEARED AIRMASS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN DAKOTAS/NORTHWEST MN...WHICH
REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH A PRIMARY HAZARD OF LARGE
HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO GIVEN THE BACKED SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW/INCREASING LOW
LEVEL JET AND A SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AIRMASS. WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND/NORTHEAST SD LARGELY TIED TO THE DIURNAL
CYCLE...THE MOST SUSTAINED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS
NORTHWEST MN AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPREADS EAST OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH/INSTABILITY AXIS. CONSULT WW 724 AND RELATED MESOSCALE
DISCUSSIONS FOR THE LATEST DETAILS REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

...SOUTHERN LA/FAR SOUTHEAST TX...
WITH THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX SPREADING WEST ACROSS THE SABINE RIVER
EARLY THIS EVENING...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND STABILIZING AFFECTS
OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS WILL LEAD TO A DIMINISHING MICROBURST/HAIL
THREAT.

..GUYER/KERR.. 08/17/2006