[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 141955
SWODY1
SPC AC 141953

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

VALID 142000Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CO/WY/SWRN SD/WRN
NEB...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER OH VALLEY THROUGH
OZARKS...

...SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM
ACROSS NRN 1/2-1/3 OF CONUS.  ELONGATED AREA OF RIDGING ALOFT --
INTERSPERSED WITH SEVERAL WEAK AND SLOW-MOVING SHORTWAVES -- WILL
EXTEND FROM AZ ACROSS SRN PLAINS...EWD TO OFFSHORE GA/SC.  STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER NRN
ONT AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD TOWARD
ERN ONT AND QUE.  ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM ERN
LOWER MI SWWD ACROSS SWRN MO AND SRN TX PANHANDLE.  FRONT  HAS
STALLED OVER SRN PLAINS AND SHOULD DECELERATE ACROSS OZARKS
AREA...WHILE MOVING SEWD THROUGH MID/UPPER OH VALLEY REGION.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
VIS IMAGERY INDICATED CB DEVELOPING AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER
FRONT/LARAMIE RANGES.  FARTHER E ACROSS HIGH PLAINS...AXIS OF
RELATIVELY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES -- 8-8.5 DEG C/KM -- IS
ANALYZED ACROSS THIS AREA.  THIS CROSSES N-S ORIENTED BOUNDARY LAYER
MOIST AXIS OVER SERN WY...WITH MOIST PLUME EXTENDING SSEWD ACROSS
ERN CO.  DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES INCREASE WITH NWD
EXTENT...AND PROXIMITY TO MID/UPPER LEVEL NRN STREAM JET...AND SLY
MOIST ADVECTION WILL COMBINE WITH DIABATIC HEATING TO INCREASE
BUOYANCY NWD ACROSS SWRN ND AND ERN WY.  THESE FACTORS WILL SUPPORT
INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION OVER THIS REGION TO SVR LEVELS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND OCCASIONAL DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE.  REF SPC WW 720
AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NEAR-TERM DETAILS.

...OH VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH REMAINDER
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS...ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT...FROM
WRN UPSTATE NY TO SRN HIGH PLAINS.  IN ADDITION TO FRONT...OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL ACT AS FOCI FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. ISOLATED
DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM PULSE/MULTICELL CONVECTION
ALMOST ANYWHERE WITHIN THAT SWATH.  MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR
RELATIVELY DENSE CONCENTRATION OF MULTICELLS...AND OF POTENTIAL FOR
MULTIPLE STG-SVR TSTMS...APPEARS TO BE FROM NRN AR TOWARD SWRN
INDIANA/WRN KY.  PRE-STORM AIR MASS ACROSS THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO BE FAVORABLY UNSTABLE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS WITH 70S SFC DEW
POINTS AND STG HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES IN 2500-3500 J/KG
RANGE. SVR POTENTIAL IS STRONGLY TIED TO DIABATIC HEATING AND
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AFTER SUNSET.

...SERN AZ/SWRN NM...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH REMAINDER
AFTERNOON.  MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL
NEAR SVR LEVELS IS IN CORRIDOR FROM NWRN TO SERN AZ WHERE ERN
PORTION OF STRONGEST SFC WARMING WILL OVERLAP WRN EXTENT OF RICH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME.  SFC DEW POINTS MID 70S F
WILL SUPPORT MLCAPES 1500-2500 J/KG OVER MOST DESERT AREAS...THOUGH
WITH WEAK AMBIENT FLOW...OROGRAPHICALLY INITIATED STORMS WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE OVER DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYERS OF DESERTS. 
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
GENERATED BY EARLIEST CONVECTION.  TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AFTER NIGHTFALL...BECAUSE OF COMBINED STABILIZING
EFFECTS OF SPREADING OUTFLOW AIR AND SFC DIABATIC COOLING.

..EDWARDS.. 08/14/2006