[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 141633
SWODY1
SPC AC 141631

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

VALID 141630Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF ERN WY/NEB PANHANDLE
AND SWRN SD...

CORRECTED FOR  REVERSAL OF HAIL PROB LINE IN AZ

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH CONTINUES EWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES TO NERN U.S.
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING TROUGH THIS AM
LOCATED FROM LOWER MI SWWD THRU SWRN MO TO SCENTRAL OK THEN WWD TO
CENTRAL NM. SURFACE HIGH CENTRAL NEB WILL SHIFT TO LOWER MO VALLEY
BY 12Z TUE ALLOWING SELY UPSLOPE FLOW TO PERSIST THE LEE OF CENTRAL
ROCKIES.

...ERN WY/NEB PANHANDLE/SWRN SD...
CONSISTENT MODEL SIGNAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE CURRENT UPSLOPE REGIME LEE OF CENTRAL ROCKIES. WITH DEWPOINTS
EXPECTED TO HOLD AT 50 F OR HIGHER E OF HIGHER TERRAIN AS FAR N AS
ECENTRAL WY...AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE TO
SUPPORT  STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  WITH LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF
8C/KM AND VEERING SHEAR PROFILES UPWARDS TO 30KT...PARAMETERS SHOULD
BE IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT VICINITY
NEB/WY BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON.  WITH LOW LEVEL SELYS OF ONLY
10-15KT AND LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVELS AROUND 2KM AGL...PRIMARY
THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL.

...OH VALLEY ACROSS SRN PLAINS...
MUCH OF THIS REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT IS CHARACTERIZED
BY WARM 500 MB TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR. 
WITH PW/S BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES ALONG WITH STRONG SURFACE
HEATING...MLCAPES OF 2000 J/KG WILL BE COMMON BY MID AFTERNOON. 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BY THIS
AFTERNOON HOWEVER SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO LOCAL
DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS FROM PRIMARILY PULSE AND MULTICELLULAR
CONVECTION.

STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR UPWARDS TO 30KT WILL BE AVAILABLE ACROSS
UPPER OH VALLEY...BUT THE WARM MID LEVELS SHOULD LIMIT UPDRAFT
STRENGTH. THUS ONLY ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE IS EXPECTED.

...AZ...
DRIER AIR IS GRADUALLY WORKING EWD AT MID LEVELS ACROSS CENTRAL AZ
AS NOTED ON FLG AND PHX 12Z SOUNDINGS. LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY
MOIST...THUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN BY MID
AFTERNOON.  THE ENTRAINMENT OF THE DRIER MID LEVEL AIR DOES INCREASE
POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS...THOUGH THE GENERALLY WEAK STEERING FLOW
PRECLUDES A SLIGHT RISK.

..HALES.. 08/14/2006