[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 140545
SWODY1
SPC AC 140544

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 AM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH
VALLEY...

...OH VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL DRIFT ESEWD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD INTO THE OH
VALLEY. SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 60
F NEAR LAKE ERIE TO THE LOWER 70S F ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY.
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. REINTENSIFICATION THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD OCCUR
WITH EXISTING CONVECTION AS MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO LIKELY INITIATE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT FROM THE OH VALLEY SWWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. THE
GREATEST STORM COVERAGE SHOULD OCCUR NEAR THE UPPER-TROUGH ACROSS
IND...OH AND NRN KY WHERE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE THE STRONGEST.

VERTICAL SHEAR AND LIFT WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70 TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL
JET MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN IND AND OH THIS
AFTERNOON SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE WHICH
SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE MULTICELLS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS LOCALLY MAXIMIZED. THE
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
ESPECIALLY WITH SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS IN AREAS WITH LOCALLY STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY
SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP.

...SRN PLAINS...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FROM WEST TX
EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SRN OK INTO CNTRL AR THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH OF
THE FRONT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING THIS MORNING
WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY INITIATING ALONG AND BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. SFC HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S F SHOULD RESULT IN POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BY
AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BACKED
LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY CREATE ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR A FEW
MULTICELL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN VERY ISOLATED AND CONCENTRATED NEAR PEAK HEATING. THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

...HIGH PLAINS...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN NV.
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND EMERGE
INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS...THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS IN
QUESTION. IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...THE SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE
OF HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

..BROYLES/TAYLOR.. 08/14/2006