[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 140057
SWODY1
SPC AC 140056

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT SUN AUG 13 2006

VALID 140100Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NE KS...NRN
MO...SE IA AND WRN IL...

...MID MS VALLEY/CNTRL PLAINS...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER MANITOBA EXTENDING SWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH HARDER TO
IDENTIFY...A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIKELY EXISTS ACROSS THE NRN MS
VALLEY EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF A
PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. THE LARGE LINEAR MCS ONGOING IN SE
IA...NRN MO AND NE KS IS LIKELY BEING SUPPORTED BY LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT JUST AHEAD OF THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS THE MCS TRACKS
EWD ACROSS NE MO AND WRN IL...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S F AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE EVENING. 

THE PROFILER AT LATHROP MO CURRENTLY SHOWS A 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUE
AROUND 25 KT IN NW MO AND THIS AMOUNT OF SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
PRESENT THROUGH 06Z. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE MULTICELL
THUNDERSTORMS IN NE MO AND WRN IL. AS INSTABILITY DECREASES...THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED WITH A GRADUAL DOWNTREND
IN STORM INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. ALTHOUGH HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS...WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT DUE TO STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CURRENTLY EXCEEDING 7.0
C/KM EWD INTO THE ST LOUIS AREA. WSWWD ACROSS KS AND NRN
OK...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO STEEP WHICH MAY RESULT IN A FEW
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS FOR 1 TO 2
MORE HOURS.

..BROYLES.. 08/14/2006