[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 121237
SWODY1
SPC AC 121236

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 AM CDT SAT AUG 12 2006

VALID 121300Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NORTHEAST CO ACROSS MUCH
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MN...

LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE NATION
TODAY...WHILE STRONG TROUGH ROTATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  UPPER FORCING WILL OVERSPREAD
A MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MN/NEB THIS
AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY SETTING THE STAGE FOR A MORE ORGANIZED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EVENT FROM EASTERN SD INTO WESTERN MN.

...NORTHERN PLAINS...
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED THIS MORNING FROM CENTRAL ND INTO
EASTERN WY.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF
FRONT MAINTAIN AMPLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES
OVER 3000 J/KG.  CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS THIS
REGION THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES.  BY 21Z...RUC/NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN ENVIRONMENT QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  LCL
HEIGHTS MAY BE A LITTLE HIGH...BUT OTHERWISE LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY
ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.  ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD
INTO MN DURING THE EVENING WITH A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT.

...NEB/CO...
FULL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED FROM EASTERN CO INTO PARTS OF NEB
TODAY...ALLOWING AIR MASS TO BECOME HOT AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE. 
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP...MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CONDUCIVE TO
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS.  ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL CO AND SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEB BEFORE WEAKENING TONIGHT.  MARGINAL
DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTS STORMS WILL BE RATHER
DISORGANIZED AND LIMITED.

...SOUTHEAST...
ANOTHER DAY OF HOT...HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM EAST TX INTO GA/SC.  THESE
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE DISORGANIZED AND CAPABLE OF ONLY BRIEF
SEVERE WINDS.  ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

..HART/TAYLOR.. 08/12/2006