[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 061636
SWODY1
SPC AC 061634

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 AM CDT SUN AUG 06 2006

VALID 061630Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NRN
KS TO ERN IA....

...CENTRAL PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH EXTENDED FROM NW WI TO SE MN/NW IA/SE
NEB/NW KS AS OF 15Z...IS MOVING SLOWLY SEWD IN THE WAKE OF A
PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING EWD OVER ONTARIO.  A BAND OF
MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS PRECEDES THE FRONT ACROSS WI/UPPER MI. 
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LIMITED THIS AREA DUE TO
CLOUDS AND POOR LAPSE RATES...AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAK IN
THE WAKE OF THE MORNING WAVE AND WELL S OF THE ONTARIO TROUGH. 
THUS...ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT SHOULD ALSO REMAIN MARGINAL THIS
AREA.

OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING OVER SE WI AND NRN IL. 
THESE STORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING EWD OVER ERN IA/WI...THOUGH THE CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO A REGION OF WEAK INSTABILITY.  AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NRN IL INTO CENTRAL IA...WITH A FEED OF
UNDISTURBED WARM SECTOR AIR FROM ERN KS/MO INTO SRN IA. THE STRONGER
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG/ ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND FRONT FROM NRN KS INTO IA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
AREA REMAINS S OF THE STRONGER MID LEVEL WLYS...BUT VERTICAL SHEAR
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS
MARGINAL SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS.  ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

...NW GULF COAST REGION...
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IN THE ELYS CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER LA/NW GULF
TOWARD SE TX.  REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL HAS BEEN REDUCED COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS ACROSS
THE GULF COAST...GIVEN LESSER CAPE VALUES AND MODEST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. WHILE ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE...THE
OVERALL SEVERE STORM THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT
MAINTAINING A SLIGHT RISK.

..THOMPSON/TAYLOR.. 08/06/2006