[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 061244
SWODY1
SPC AC 061242

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 AM CDT SUN AUG 06 2006

VALID 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE TX COASTAL PLAIN AND
SRN LA...

...CNTRL PLAINS/MIDWEST...
AS STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSIVE IMPULSE OVER
ONTARIO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST...TRAILING FRONT/WIND SHIFT...FROM
WRN GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD TO IA/SERN NEB...WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN
ACROSS THESE AREAS WITH TIME. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION...COUPLED WITH PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...WILL ESTABLISH A ZONE OF ENHANCED MESOSCALE ASCENT FROM
SRN WI WSWWD TO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING
AND DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THIS ZONE WILL LIKELY FUEL AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TSTMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE.

WEAK POST FRONTAL FLOW WITH SOME ELY/UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL BE
TOPPED BY 15-30KT WLY FLOW ALOFT AND RESULT IN MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE/ROTATION...AND PERHAPS SOME
HAIL. IN ADDITION...DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE RESIDUAL FRONT AND MOVING INTO STRONGLY
HEATED AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FROM NEB/KS BORDER EWD ACROSS
SRN IA/NRN MO.

..SERN TX/SRN LA...
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND STRONG HEATING WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS TSTMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND TX COASTAL PLAIN TODAY. LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AND BAND OF ENHANCED CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LARGE NWWD
MOVING MID/UPPER LOW MAY SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF MULTICELL STORMS
PRODUCING WET DOWNBURSTS.  THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS
AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE. 

...UPPER OH VALLEY/CNTRL APPALACHIANS...
INCREASING WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON
THE WRN PERIPHERY OF EAST COAST ANTICYCLONE AND MAY BE FURTHER
ENHANCED/CHANNELED IN THE LOW LEVELS ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS. THIS PROCESS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG INSTABILITY WITH HEATING OF THE DAY FROM THE
TN VALLEY NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PULSE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA GIVEN WEAKLY
CAPPED AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.  WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL ALSO BRUSH THIS REGION
AND MAY PROMOTE GREATER STORM COVERAGE/SEVERE POTENTIAL.  OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED...HOWEVER...AS RUC FORECAST AND
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING INDICATE RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES
AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR. 

...NRN CA/SRN ORE...
BELT OF 25-30KT SLY FLOW ON ERN EDGE OF OPENING MID LEVEL WAVE WILL
ARRIVE ACROSS NRN CA/SRN ORE COINCIDENT WITH MAXIMUM IN DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION. THE INCREASE IN SHEAR MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS WITH SOME HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL OVER THESE AREAS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

..EVANS/GUYER/CARBIN.. 08/06/2006