[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 060452
SWODY1
SPC AC 060450

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CDT SAT AUG 05 2006

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO PARTS
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH
VALLEY/CNTRL APPALACHIANS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAIN/SRN
LA...

...SYNOPSIS...
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD WITH LARGE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DOMINATING THE SRN 2/3RDS OF THE CONUS AND A BROAD
BAND OF CYCLONIC FLOW SPREADING ESEWD FROM SCNTRL CANADA AND THE
UPPER MS VALLEY...ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...TO THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY/NRN NEW ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A CLOSED LOW OFF
THE CA COAST WILL BEGIN TO OPEN UP AND MOVE NEWD TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AS DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. LONG-LIVED SUBTROPICAL GYRE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE TX GULF COAST TODAY WHILE SMALLER SCALE WAVE MOVES WWD FROM THE
FL STRAITS INTO THE CNTRL GULF.

...CNTRL PLAINS/MIDWEST...
AS STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSIVE IMPULSE OVER
ONTARIO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST...TRAILING FRONT/WIND SHIFT...FROM
WRN GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD TO IA/NEB...WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN
ACROSS THESE AREAS WITH TIME. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION...COUPLED WITH PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...WILL ESTABLISH A ZONE OF ENHANCED MESOSCALE ASCENT FROM
SRN WI WSWWD TO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING
AND DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THIS ZONE WILL LIKELY FUEL AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TSTMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE.

WEAK POST FRONTAL FLOW WITH SOME ELY/UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL BE
TOPPED BY 15-30KT WLY FLOW ALOFT AND RESULT IN MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE
 DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE/ROTATION... AND PERHAPS
SOME HAIL. IN ADDITION...DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE RESIDUAL FRONT AND MOVING INTO
STRONGLY HEATED AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FROM NEB/KS BORDER
EWD ACROSS SRN IA/NRN MO.

...UPPER OH VALLEY/CNTRL APPALACHIANS...
INCREASING WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON
THE WRN PERIPHERY OF EAST COAST ANTICYCLONE AND MAY BE FURTHER
ENHANCED/CHANNELED IN THE LOW LEVELS ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS. THIS PROCESS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG INSTABILITY WITH HEATING OF THE DAY FROM THE
TN VALLEY NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PULSE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA GIVEN WEAKLY
CAPPED AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE  POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL AND WIND MAY EVOLVE OVER
PARTS OF ERN KY/SRN OH WHERE MID LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL ALSO BRUSH THIS REGION AND MAY PROMOTE
GREATER STORM COVERAGE/SEVERE POTENTIAL.

...SERN TX/SRN LA...
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND STRONG HEATING WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS TSTMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND TX COASTAL PLAIN TODAY. LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AND BAND OF ENHANCED CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LARGE NWWD
MOVING MID/UPPER LOW MAY SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF MULTICELL STORMS
PRODUCING WET DOWNBURSTS.

...NRN CA/SRN ORE...
BELT OF 25-30KT SLY FLOW ON ERN EDGE OF OPENING MID LEVEL WAVE WILL
ARRIVE ACROSS NRN CA/SRN ORE COINCIDENT WITH MAXIMUM IN DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION. THE INCREASE IN SHEAR MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS WITH SOME HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL OVER THESE AREAS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

..CARBIN/GUYER.. 08/06/2006