[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 051949
SWODY1
SPC AC 051947

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0247 PM CDT SAT AUG 05 2006

VALID 052000Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF MN...ND...SD...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN
PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS AND NRN MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN
U.S....

...NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING EWD ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WITH A LEAD
TROUGH OVER ERN ND. AT THE SFC....A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED IN CNTRL
ND AND NW SD WITH SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IN THE 60S F
RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING IN SE ND AND NW MN ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STORM COVERAGE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE INSTABILITY
AXIS AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A 70 KT MID-LEVEL JET OVER NW ND
WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS
WILL STRENGTHEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
VALUES LIKELY REACHING 40 TO 50 KT ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. IN ADDITION...LAPSE RATES WILL
CONTINUE TO STEEPEN WHICH WITH THE INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. THE STRONGEST SUPERCELLS
SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. VERY
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOW ECHOES ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW-LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS A LINEAR MCS ORGANIZES AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND MOVES EWD ACROSS THE REGION.

...SERN U.S...
A WEAK FLOW REGIME IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE SERN U.S. WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED FROM LA EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS CNTRL
MS...NCNTRL AL...NRN GA AND SC. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS HELPING INITIATE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH WIND
SHEAR PROFILES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY
STEEP AND EXCEED 8.0 C/KM IN SOME AREAS. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 08/05/2006