[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 042008
SWODY1
SPC AC 042006

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 PM CDT FRI AUG 04 2006

VALID 042000Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THRU EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS
OF THE SERN U.S....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN
PLAINS INTO NRN MN....

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS EWD
INTO THE TN VALLEY AND CAROLINAS.  MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES RUNS
ALONG THE NRN TIER OF STATES FROM MT THRU THE GREAT LAKES WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES.  VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVG
SEWD ACROSS ERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND SRN ALBERTA AND IS EXPECTED TO
BE INTO S CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN BY END OF THE PERIOD.

...MID ATLANTIC/SERN STATES...

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS
FROM SERN MD...THEN CONTINUES SWWD/WWD AS A COMBINATION WEAK WIND
SHIFT/CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY THRU THE TN VALLEY INTO NRN AR.  SFC
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S FROM SERN VA INTO THE GULF COAST
REGION...FARTHER S THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.  THUS...FOCUS OF
CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF PULSE-TYPE ACTIVITY AND ITS
ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN AND EARLY
TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS.

...PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS EWD THRU NRN MN...

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE INCREASING THRU TONIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION.  SWLY LOW LEVEL JET 35-45 KT WILL DEVELOP FROM CENTRAL NEB
THRU N CENTRAL MN WHICH WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS
THE REGION.  AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS CENTRAL ND
WITH MLCAPE TO 1500 J/KG.  PROBLEM ATTM LOOKS TO BE LACK OF
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S.  BUT
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50-60 KT ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF ND...AND
THAT THE SW CANADA SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO
SASKATCHEWAN...EXPECT STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO BE POSSIBLE
AFTER 05/06Z ACROSS THIS REGION IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP ABOVE LOW
LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION.

..MCCARTHY.. 08/04/2006