[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 032003
SWODY1
SPC AC 032001

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 PM CDT THU AUG 03 2006

VALID 032000Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY....

...SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EWD INTO THE ERN GREAT
LAKES AND EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.  LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT FROM WRN LAKE ERIE WSWWD THRU CENTRAL MO
INTO SERN KS...WITH SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES ACROSS NE INTO
CENTRAL OHIO...THRU CENTRAL NY STATE INTO NERN OH...AND FROM NERN PA
ENEWD THRU COASTAL MA. THE BOUNDARIES WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR
FURTHER CONVECTION THRU EARLY TONIGHT.

...INDIANA/OHIO ENEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND...

STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM S
CENTRAL NY STATE THRU NRN/CENTRAL OH AND CENTRAL INDIANA.  ALONG AND
S OF THE BOUNDARY...AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND SURFACE DEW POINTS
IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S.  MAIN THREAT WITH ALL THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS RAIN-COOLED AIR BEHIND THE LINES OF CONVECTION
ACCELERATE THE STORMS EWD INTO UNSTABLE AIR.

IN ADDITION...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER SERN LOWER
MI INTO E CENTRAL IL AHEAD OF 850 MB FRONT AND JUST BEHIND SURFACE
FRONT. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG THRU EARLY
TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

...SERN U.S. FROM VA/NC INTO AL/GA...

PULSE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WHERE MLCAPE
IS GENERALLY BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG.  ACTIVITY IS WITHIN REGIME OF
WEAK LOW/UPPER LEVEL FLOW...THUS THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING AND NOT
MOVING VERY MUCH AND MERGING WITH SURROUNDING STORMS.  SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY COLLAPSE
PUTTING OUT OUTFLOWS FOR NEWER STORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT.

...PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

SEVERAL WEAK BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM S
CENTRAL KS THRU NWRN OK...AND FROM NWRN AR INTO SWRN OK AND THE TX
PANHANDLE.  THIS AIR MASS TOO IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
GENERALLY AROUND 2000 J/KG.  UPSLOPE TYPE FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE TX
PANHANDLE INTO ERN CO...THEN RETURN SLY FLOW IS CARRYING THIS
MOISTURE INTO THE BLACK HILLS REGION OF SD.  ONCE AGAIN...GIVEN THAT
THE AIR MASS IS HOT AND MOIST WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S IN THE
PLAINS AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS SRN SECTIONS DOWN TO THE 50S
IN ERN CO TO THE 40S IN SD...LAPSE RATES ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
STORMS WITH POSSIBLY STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

..MCCARTHY.. 08/03/2006