[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 031633
SWODY1
SPC AC 031632

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CDT THU AUG 03 2006

VALID 031630Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OHIO VALLEY TO SRN NEW
ENGLAND...

...SYNOPSIS...
ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS NRN CONUS WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE S OF
40N. PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY S AND E AND THIS
MORNING EXTENDS FROM SWRN ONTARIO THRU NRN IL AND THEN SWWD ACROSS
NRN OK INTO TX PANHANDLE.

A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS TO S OF FRONTAL ZONE FROM SRN
NEW ENGLAND TO SRN PLAINS.  FOCUS FOR INITIATION OF STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY VICINITY THE SRN FRINGE OF THICKER
BAND OF CLOUDS THAT EXTENDS FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND ACROSS NY INTO NRN
OH VALLEY.

...OH VALLEY TO SRN NEW ENGLAND...
AS TEMPERATURES RISE THRU THE 90S WITH DEWPOINTS AOA 70F...AIR MASS
IS BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 2000-3000 J/KG.
 30-35 KT OF SHEAR COMMON AHEAD OF WEAK TROUGH NOW MOVING EWD THRU
THE GREAT LAKES. CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED
NERN OH AND CENTRAL IND THIS AM.  WITH THE STRONG
HEATING...STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCREASING EWD ACROSS
OH VALLEY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND THRU THE AFTERNOON.  WIND DAMAGE WILL
BE GREATEST CONCERN PARTICULARLY ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPMENT OF
SHORT LINES/BOWS GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SHEAR...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND  HIGH PW/S. HAIL WILL BE LESS LIKELY WITH THE WARM MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

...CAROLINAS...
WITH VERY STRONG HEATING...AND HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS....CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP E OF
APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WHILE SHEAR IS
WEAK...DCAPES FORECASTED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR PULSE SEVERE IN FORM OF
DOWNBURSTS FROM MID AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNSET.

...SRN FL...
WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC SYSTEM OFF E COAST OF FL WILL PROVIDE
BOTH SOME INCREASE IN SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES TO ENHANCE THE DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM CYCLE.  ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND MARGINAL HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST STORMS S HALF OF FL.

...SRN ROCKIES/CENTRAL SRN HIGH PLAINS EWD ACROSS OK INTO SRN MO...
BOUNDARIES HAVE MOVED SWD TO STRETCH ACROSS SRN MO INTO SWRN OK THEN
 WWD.  EXAMINING 12Z SOUNDINGS...THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON VICINITY
BOUNDARIES AS MLCAPES CLIMB TO ABOVE 2000 J/KG AND DCAPES ALSO
INCREASE TO AOA 1500 J/KG.  WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...STORM MODE
SHOULD BE PRIMARILY PULSE SRN PLAINS AND POSSIBLY MULTICELL ERN CO
INTO WRN NEB/SD WHERE SHEAR IS A LITTLE GREATER.  DOWNBURSTS AND
ISOLATED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE MUCH OF THIS AREA BUT LACK OF
ORGANIZATION PRECLUDES A RISK AREA.

..HALES/CROSBIE.. 08/03/2006