[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 031301
SWODY1
SPC AC 031259

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 AM CDT THU AUG 03 2006

VALID 031300Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LWR OH VLY INTO SRN
NEW ENGLAND...

...SYNOPSIS...
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE MID/UPR MS VLY WILL
TRACK E TO LK HURON BY THIS EVENING BEFORE CONTINUING E INTO UPSTATE
NY FRIDAY MORNING.  MODERATE TO STRONG ZONAL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL PREVAIL FROM THE N CNTRL STATES TO THE N AND MID
ATLANTIC CST.  ELSEWHERE...REMNANT DEFORMATION AXIS WITH EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO PERSIST FROM THE SRN HI PLNS E/NE INTO SRN
KS AND MO.  FARTHER S...SUBTROPICAL IMPULSES SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY
W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS/FL...AND ACROSS S TX.

AT THE SURFACE...DIFFUSE W/E COLD FRONT LOCALLY REINFORCED BY
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WILL SETTLE S ACROSS THE ERN GRT LKS AND OH VLY. 
A SHALLOW COOL SURGE WILL ALSO MOVE SW INTO CNTRL NEW ENGLAND.

...OH VLY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND...
DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW...WITH MEAN SPEEDS ON THE ORDER OF 40
KTS...WILL PREVAIL DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE CROSSING THE
GRT LKS.  SURFACE HEATING SHOULD YIELD VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...WITH AVERAGE MLCAPE
AOA 2000 J/KG LIKELY FROM PARTS OF IN/KY E/NE INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND
AND PA/SRN NY. COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE FORCING...FRONTAL UPLIFT
AND DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
FORWARD-PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS...WITH N/S-ORIENTED EMBEDDED
BOWS PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

...SRN/CNTRL PLNS INTO THE RCKYS/SW...
WEAK DEEP SHEAR/FORCING WILL PREVAIL INVOF STALLING COLD FRONT/LEE
TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLNS.  STRONG HEATING...SHALLOW FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE COMPONENTS WILL...HOWEVER...PROVIDE SUPPORT
FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE PULSE STORMS FROM
THE OZARKS WSW ACROSS OK/NRN TX AND ERN NM BY AFTERNOON. DEEPLY
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LARGE SURFACE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS MAY
PROMOTE A FEW MICROBURSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FARTHER W...WEAK IMPULSE MOVING W ACROSS S TX...COUPLED WITH WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...MAY SUPPORT A FEW PERSISTENT
TSTM CLUSTERS FROM NERN NM NWD/NEWD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY CONVECTION MAY
PERSIST PAST SUNSET AND SPREAD INTO SD/SRN ND LATE TONIGHT AS LLJ
INTENSIFIES.  SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP TO SUPPORT A FEW
STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OF SUB-TROPICAL ORIGIN WILL MOVE NW FROM NRN
MEXICO TO NEAR THE AZ/NM BORDER AREA. THIS SYSTEM COULD ENHANCE TSTM
COVERAGE/PERSISTENCE FROM W TX INTO SE AZ...WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

...FL PENINSULA...
WWD-MOVING UPR DISTURBANCE WILL STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
ENHANCE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS FL PENINSULA DURING MAX HEATING
TODAY. THIS MAY SUPPORT STRONGER/MORE PERSISTENT AND ORGANIZED
DIURNAL STORM CLUSTERS RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS.  PARTS OF THE
SRN/CNTRL PENINSULA MAY REQUIRE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IF STORM
SCALE INTERACTIONS ARE ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF INCREASING
INSTABILITY.

..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 08/03/2006