[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 030455
SWODY1
SPC AC 030453

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 PM CDT WED AUG 02 2006

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY TO
SRN NEW ENGLAND...

...SYNOPSIS...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE TYPICALLY HOT AND
HUMID SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS FROM THE SRN ROCKIES AND PLAINS EWD/NEWD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MS VALLEY...SOUTH...AND MOST OF THE EAST COAST
TODAY. A RESPITE FROM THE HEAT WILL COME ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FROM PARTS OF THE SRN ROCKIES/PLAINS EAST TO THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY
AREAS...AND OVER PA/NY/NJ...AND PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PULSE/MULTICELL
STORMS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL FROM THE
SRN APPALACHIANS TO THE NERN GULF COAST AND FL.

...MIDWEST TO SRN NEW ENGLAND...
DEEP-LAYER FRONTAL ZONE REINFORCED BY SEVERAL ONGOING CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES WILL REMAIN SITUATED ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF FASTER MID
LEVEL FLOW OF 30-40KT FROM THE MID MS VALLEY EWD TO NY/CT. VERY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH HEATING OF THE DAY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH MLCAPE OVER 2000 J/KG LIKELY. LARGE SCALE
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND FRONTAL LIFT WILL
SPUR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WITH STORMS INTENSIFYING AS GREATER
INSTABILITY IS REALIZED. ACTIVITY SHOULD FORM INTO SEVERAL
PERSISTENT ESEWD-MOVING BANDS OR CLUSTERS WITH WIND DAMAGE BEING THE
PREDOMINANT SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD.

...SRN ROCKIES/PLAINS...
FARTHER WEST...LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER.
HOWEVER...TRAILING FRONT AND STRONG HEATING WILL PROVIDE SOME
IMPETUS FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT
FROM THE OZARKS WSWWD ACROSS OK/NRN TX AND NM BY AFTERNOON. WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND LARGE SURFACE TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS FROM PULSE
STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

A WEAK IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE WRN/NWRN PERIPHERY OF
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE...COUPLED WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...MAY PROMOTE A FEW TSTM CLUSTERS FROM NERN NM
NWD/NEWD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY PERSIST PAST SUNSET AS LOW LEVEL JET
INTENSIFIES AND SUSTAINS MASS TRANSPORT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
AREA. GENERALLY LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING SHOULD KEEP SEVERE
WEATHER ISOLATED TO MARGINAL HAIL...AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF SEVERE
WIND GUSTS.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OF SUB-TROPICAL ORIGIN IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
NWWD FROM NRN MEXICO TO NEAR THE AZ/NM BORDER AREA. THIS SYSTEM
COULD ENHANCE TSTM COVERAGE AND PERSISTENCE FROM WEST TX WWD TO SERN
AZ WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

...SOUTHEAST/FL...
STRONG HEATING AND WEAK CAP WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AFTERNOON STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND FL. STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY FORM ON THE ERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS AND
ALSO NEAR SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES NEAR THE COAST. WEAK SHEAR AND
FORCING WITHIN DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE WILL CONFINE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL TO ISOLATED/RANDOM PULSE STORMS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WIND
GUSTS.

SLIGHTLY GREATER CONCENTRATION OF STORMS WITH WIND AND HAIL
POTENTIAL MAY FORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF FL AS A MID LEVEL IMPULSE AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL COLD POOL DRIFT WWD COINCIDENT WITH STRONGEST
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION.

..CARBIN/JEWELL.. 08/03/2006