[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 290102
SWODY1
SPC AC 290100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

VALID 290100Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CNTRL TX AND SMALL PART OF SWRN
OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN PLAINS...

...SRN PLAINS...
EXTENSIVE AREA OF CONVECTION ONGOING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS AS UPPER SYSTEM OVER SWRN NM ADVANCES INTO THE CNTRL
CONUS. COLD FRONT HAS REACHED INTO WRN OK AND EXTENDS SWD THROUGH
THE PANHANDLE OF TX...WITH THE DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD FROM SURFACE
LOW INTO SWRN TX. AHEAD OF DRYLINE/SURFACE LOW A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
WARM SECTOR /SBCAPE AOB 2500 J/KG/ IS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT CNTRL AND
SRN TX.

MID LEVEL JET OF 70 KTS IS ENHANCING THE VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE
CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS. 00 UTC SOUNDINGS SHOW IMPRESSIVE LOW/DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER WHERE SURFACE TO 6
KM AGL SHEAR EXCEEDS 60 TO 70 KTS AND 0-1 KM SRH IS AOB 300 M2/S2.

AS STRONG FORCING CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EWD INTO THE PLAINS...EXPECT
SURFACE BASED SUPERCELLS TO EVOLVE INTO MIXED LINEAR/DISCRETE MODES
WITH CONVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT PRIND THAT
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE MAY EVOLVE FROM CNTRL/SRN OK TO
CNTRL/ERN TX. THE THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
PERSIST...WITH THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
RED RIVER WHERE MAXIMUM INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDE.

FARTHER NORTH ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS WILL EXTEND NWD TO THE KS BORDER. BROAD AREA OF LARGE
SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE LLJ...SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION...HEAVY PRECIPITATION...AND ISOLATED THREAT OF LARGE
HAIL.

..BRIGHT/RACY.. 04/29/2006