[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 280148
SWODY1
SPC AC 280146

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0846 PM CDT THU APR 27 2006

VALID 280100Z - 281200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED FOR POINTS FILE

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
RESIDUAL LARGE SCALE RIDGING AND HIGH CLOUDS MAINTAINED A FAIRLY
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TSTMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SWRN TX
DURING THE AFTN.  18...21 AND 00Z MIDLAND SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWED
SIGNIFICANT INHIBITION ON THE PLAINS TO SUPPRESS TSTMS. THOUGH THE
LARGE SCALE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CYCLONIC ALOFT THROUGH THE
NIGHT...IT IS NOT CLEAR WHETHER WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS
WILL DEVELOP.  SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR TSTMS WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE BIG BEND REGION AND INTO WRN PARTS OF SCNTRL TX AS
ELEVATED BANDS OF STORMS BECOME BETTER DEFINED WITHIN THE WARM
CONVEYOR BELT. HERE...ISOLD HAIL MAY OCCUR GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES.


FARTHER N...COMBINATION OF A MORE FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT/DIVERGENT
UPPER FLOW REGIME DOWNSTREAM FROM THE DESERT SW UPPER LOW...A
STRONGER COMPONENT OF MOISTENING UPSLOPE FLOW AND HEATING
CONTRIBUTED TO MORE TSTM COVERAGE THIS AFTN.  VERTICAL SHEAR HAS
BEEN SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG-SEVERE STORMS/SUPERCELLS OVER MAINLY
ECNTRL/NERN NM.  THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLD LARGE HAIL OR A
DAMAGING WIND GUST THROUGH MID-EVENING.

THE NERN NM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO EXPAND ENEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLAINS ALONG/N OF THE SEWD MOVING LEE-TROUGH/COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. 
STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG TSTMS WITH PERHAPS ISOLD HAIL/GUSTY WINDS.

..RACY.. 04/28/2006