[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 240301
SWODY1
SPC AC 240300

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1000 PM CDT SUN APR 23 2006

VALID 240100Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS
AND OZARK PLATEAU...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NE COLORADO...

CORRECTED TO REMOVE EXTRA THUNDER POINTS OVER CO

...ERN KS/ERN OK/OZARK PLATEAU...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WITH A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
EXTENDING EWD FROM SRN CO ACROSS SRN KS. AN MCS IS DEVELOPING IN THE
MOIST PLUME ALONG THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE JUST SOUTH OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS ERN KS AND NRN OK
MOVING INTO INCREASING SFC DEWPOINTS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. THIS
COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 30-35 KT AS SHOWN ON REGIONAL
PROFILERS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH STORMS THAT
REMAIN DISCRETE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS
AND/OR BOW ECHOES WILL ALSO BE LIKELY ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE INTENSE
LINE SEGMENTS. THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL DUE
TO THE STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE BUT ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
REGION LATER THIS EVENING. THE MCS SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE EWD INTO
SRN AND CNTRL MO OVERNIGHT WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT
CONTINUING. HOWEVER...DECREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW THE THREAT
TO BECOME MARGINAL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

...WEST TX...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WRN PORTION OF THE SRN PLAINS WITH A DRY SLOT MOVING EWD ACROSS
WEST TX. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE DRY SLOT NEAR
A RETREATING DRYLINE. AS THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO INCREASING
INSTABILITY THIS EVENING...MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.
HOWEVER...THE ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING
DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY.

...NE CO/SW NEB...
SSWLY FLOW IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS NERN CO AHEAD OF AN
UPPER-LOW DRIFTING EWD ACROSS NWRN AZ. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SWD
ACROSS ERN CO AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NERN CO WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 40S F.
THE BOULDER WSR-88D VWP CURRENTLY SHOWS BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH
STRONG VEERING WIND PROFILES THROUGH 6 KM. THIS SUGGESTS THE SHEAR
COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE
STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY
DROPS ACROSS THE REGION.

..BROYLES.. 04/24/2006