[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 231633
SWODY1
SPC AC 231632

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CDT SUN APR 23 2006

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...TX/OK/SRN KS...
LARGE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TODAY...
WITH DEEP UPPER LOWS OVER CA...AND LOWER MI.  CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS FROM KS INTO TX.  STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OF
1500-2000 J/KG ALONG AND EAST OF DRYLINE ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER INTO
WESTERN KS.  MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM 700MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THIS REGION...BUT A GENERAL COOLING IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MEXICO
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.  THIS SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST KS INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
TX PANHANDLE...AND ISOLATED STORMS FROM THERE SOUTHWARD.  DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES OF 25-35 KNOTS WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED AND
ISOLATED SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE RATHER HIGH-BASED...ENHANCING THE
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.  ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD
INTO PARTS OF WESTERN OK AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS DURING THE EVENING.

...SRN NEB/NRN KS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL KS
INTO CENTRAL MO.  STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS OCCURRING NORTH OF
BOUNDARY...WHERE WEAKER CAP AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES IN THIS REGION
SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.  IF
ACTIVITY CAN ORGANIZE AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD ALONG
BOUNDARY...DAMAGING WIND THREAT WOULD ALSO INCREASE.

...MO/IL/KS/TN...
EASTWARD EXTENT OF SURFACE WARM FRONT LIES ACROSS CENTRAL MO INTO
CENTRAL KY.  AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF BOUNDARY WILL BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND
MLCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THIS AXIS...WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS.

...OH/PA/NY/VA/MD...
FRONTAL BAND CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN PA/CENTRAL
NY.  CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALLOW AIR MASS TO
DESTABILIZE ACROSS PARTS OF MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON. 
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS WEAK AND DECREASING WITH TIME. 
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA...WITH HAIL POSSIBLE IN
STRONGEST CELLS.  HOWEVER...AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

...FL...
WARM/MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN FL
PENINSULA TODAY...WHERE SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE.  CONVERGENCE ALONG SOUTHEAST COAST SEA BREEZE...COMBINED
WITH 30KT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED STRONG STORMS
CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS OR HAIL.

..HART/GUYER.. 04/23/2006