[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 170100
SWODY1
SPC AC 170058

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2006

VALID 170100Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH
VALLEY...

...OH VALLEY...
CLOSED UPPER LOW...NOW LOCATED OVER ERN IA...WILL CONTINUE TO
DE-AMPLIFY AS IT EVOLVES INTO AN OPEN WAVE TRACKING SEWD INTO THE
LOWER OH VALLEY...REACHING SRN IND/OH REGION BY 12Z MONDAY.  IN THE
LOW-LEVELS...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL/SRN IL WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD THROUGH CENTRAL/SRN IND TO SWRN OH AND
SRN WV.  SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THIS BOUNDARY INTO
SRN IND THIS EVENING AND THEN REACHING ERN KY TOWARD 12Z.

50-60 KT WNWLY MID-LEVEL JET OVER NRN MO WILL TRANSLATE ESEWD INTO
KY MAINTAINING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS SEWD ACROSS SRN IND...CENTRAL/ERN KY AND SWRN OH. 
GRADUAL DECREASE IN AVAILABLE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY/BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZATION...GIVEN LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...SUGGESTS OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE GENERALLY AFTER 03Z.  UNTIL
THEN...40-50 KT SWLY LLJ ALONG THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND BENEATH WNWLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT
TORNADO POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS ACTIVITY SPREADS
ESEWD ACROSS SRN IND INTO PARTS OF NWRN-NRN KY.  HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS
WILL ALSO REMAIN A THREAT WITH THE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING.  VEERING
LLJ OVERNIGHT AND DECREASING TREND IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR/INSTABILITY
SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE
PERIOD.  HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY AND 25-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS AS
STORMS SPREAD INTO SRN OH/ERN KY.

...MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED AN APPARENT MID-LEVEL IMPULSE LOCATED
OVER VA/NRN NC AT 00Z. THE COMBINATION OF THIS FEATURE MOVING
OFFSHORE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND CONTINUATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ATTENDANT SEVERE POTENTIAL.

..PETERS.. 04/17/2006