[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 121603
SWODY1
SPC AC 121601

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1101 AM CDT WED APR 12 2006

VALID 121630Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF LOWER MI... MUCH OF OH
AND NWRN PA...

...GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...
PRONOUNCED LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENCED BY CYCLONIC SWIRL IN VSB
CLOUD PATTERN MOVING ACROSS SRN LM INTO WRN LWR MI. COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO WRN LM TRAILS SWWD ACROSS NRN IND INTO NRN OK.

CURRENT ELEVATED CONVECTION DRIVEN BY WARM ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AHEAD OF TROUGH CONTINUES EWD ACROSS NRN OH WITH SOME
CLEARING IN ITS WAKE. HEATING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT INTO WRN OH DURING
AFTERNOON WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES WHICH ALONG WITH INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PROVIDES FOR DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST INSTABILITY.

NAM APPEARS TOO AGGRESSIVE ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE RUC MORE
REASONABLE AS DEWPONTS RISE INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS OH BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF FRONT.

BY MID AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 70S
AND DEWPOINTS INTO MID 50S...MLCAPES WILL RANGE UPWARDS AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT TO POSSIBLY 1000 J/KG CENTRAL OH.  FOECASTED 30KT OF LOW
LEVEL SHEAR AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON FROM SERN CORNER MI SWD INTO WRN OH WITH
POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.  

STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A LINEAR MODE QUICKLY GIVEN LIMITED CAPE
AND STRONG SHEAR.  POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD DECREASE EWD
THIS EVENING AS STORMS ENCOUNTER DECREASING INSTABILITY WRN PA.

..HALES/JEWELL.. 04/12/2006