[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 100525
SWODY1
SPC AC 100524

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 AM CDT MON APR 10 2006

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

FLATTENING OF WRN CONUS LONG WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY
ONE PERIOD AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW FROM ERN ORE SWD INTO WRN NV
DE-AMPLIFIES WHILE LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO
S-CNTRL CANADA.  MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY
DIGGING SWD NEAR 35N AND 129 W/ WILL TURN MORE EWD ACROSS THE LOWER
CO VALLEY AND INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...CURRENT SURFACE DATA SHOW LEE CYCLOGENESIS IN
PROGRESS OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...AND THIS PROCESS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH MAIN SURFACE LOW CONSOLIDATING OVER
NERN WY BY LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS LOW WILL THEN DEVELOP NEWD INTO THE
RED RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING
ACROSS THE REGION.  MEANWHILE...ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL
CONCURRENTLY LIFT NWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY
WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES EWD OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE
DAKOTAS AND NEB. 

...ERN MT / NERN WY EWD INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NRN MN...

GOES PW LOOP AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT AIR MASS ACROSS THE
PLAINS REMAINS QUITE DRY WITH DEWPOINTS LARGELY IN THE 30 AND 40S. 
LITTLE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST AND THIS WILL
LIMIT A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON INTO
OVERNIGHT.  NONETHELESS...DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH HEIGHT FALLS
AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT WEAK INSTABILITY LATER TODAY AHEAD
OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT.

TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ALONG OR PERHAPS IN IMMEDIATE WAKE OF COLD FRONT OVER ERN
MT SWD INTO NERN WY.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MOVE/DEVELOP EWD OR
NEWD INTO PORTIONS OF WRN SD AND WRN/CNTRL ND THIS EVENING...PRIOR
TO WEAKENING.  POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES...MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND DRY SUB-CLOUD CONDITIONS.

ADDITIONAL MORE ELEVATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT N OF
SURFACE WARM FRONT OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY EWD ACROSS FAR NRN MN. 
THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT MUCAPES OF 500-700
J/KG MAY SUPPORT SOME HAIL WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.

..MEAD/CROSBIE.. 04/10/2006