[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 091608
SWODY1
SPC AC 091606

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 AM CDT SUN APR 09 2006

VALID 091630Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTH FLORIDA...

...SOUTH FLORIDA...

THE TAIL END OF THE TROUGH NOW MOVING OFF THE E COAST WILL SLOWLY
DRAG ACROSS FL TODAY.  S FL 12Z SOUNDINGS REFLECT THE APPROACHING
TROUGH WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7C/KM AND UPWARDS OF 40KT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

ADDITIONALLY THE SWLY FLOW HAS SPREAD A MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS
INLAND TO S OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS E/W JUST S OF
A MLB TO TPA LINE.

WITH SFC TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS HOLDING NEAR
70F SERN FL... CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS GONE AND MLCAPES HAVE
CLIMBED TO ABOVE 2000 J/KG.

STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE VICINITY SUBTLE SURFACE
BOUNDARIES SUCH AS S COAST SEA BREEZE AND CURRENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
PROPAGATING SWD ALONG E COAST. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP
THRU THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES THAT EMANATE
FROM INITIAL ACTIVITY

PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE WILL BE MULTI-CELL GIVEN THE WEAK LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...HOWEVER ROTATING STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMICS AND MDT DEEP LAYER SHEAR.  LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURSTS
WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH STRONGEST ACTIVITY.

..HALES/GRAMS.. 04/09/2006