[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 041244
SWODY1
SPC AC 041242

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 AM CDT TUE APR 04 2006

VALID 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SRN CA...

...SRN CA...
PROMINENT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW NEAR 34N/130W WILL CONTINUE
APPROACHING THE SRN CA COAST TODAY AND MOVE INLAND LATER TONIGHT. 
SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL JET WILL LIKEWISE DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SRN
CA DURING THE PERIOD WITH 100+ KT AT H5 NOSING ACROSS THE SRN CA
COAST BY 06Z.  THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED...
COOLING ALOFT AND MODEST AFTERNOON HEATING ARE STILL FORECAST TO
SUPPORT WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY ALONG THE SRN CA COAST AND
INTO THE SRN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH
INSTABILITY PERSISTING AFTER DARK NEAR THE COAST WITHIN VERY COLD
POCKET ALOFT.  THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL DUE TO
LIMITED INSTABILITY...VERY STRONG SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF LOW
TOPPED SUPERCELLS AND LINES.  ALONG WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL...THIS WILL RESULT IN POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS AND BRIEF
TORNADOES.

...CENTRAL FL...
SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL FL TODAY AS STRONG UPPER
SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.  SOUNDINGS YESTERDAY EVENING
AND THIS MORNING INDICATE RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES REMAIN IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.  COMBINATION OF HEATING AND WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE SHOULD OVERCOME CAPPING WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON.  THOUGH SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
WEAK /SFC-6 KM SHEAR AOB 25 KT/...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT A LOW PROBABILITY THREAT OF ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WITH STRONGER CORES INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.  CONVECTION AND ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
AFTER DARK.

...SRN KS/NRN OK INTO SWRN MO/WRN AR...
SSWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT OUT OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND NOSES
 INTO NRN OK/SRN KS AFTER 06Z. GFS AND NAM BOTH DEVELOP 40+ KT H85
JET...BUT DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON ITS LOCATION AND AREA OF SUBSEQUENT
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. 
REGARDLESS...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE ABOVE A
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER WITH H85 DEW POINTS AOA 8C LATE IN THE
PERIOD.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCAPE APPROACHING 750 J/KG
WITH 40-50 KT OF CLOUD LAYER SHEAR.  THEREFORE...STORMS MAY DEVELOP
MID LEVEL ROTATION AND SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

..EVANS/LEVIT.. 04/04/2006