[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 040549
SWODY1
SPC AC 040548

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT TUE APR 04 2006

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CA...

...CA...

LATE EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS CENTER OF UPPER
CIRCULATION OVER THE ERN PACIFIC NEAR 35N/132W...MOVING SEWD TOWARD
THE CNTRL CA COAST.  00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONG UPPER
JET...APPROACHING 100KT...WILL MOVE INTO SRN CA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH FOCUSED DIVERGENCE ALOFT EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. STRONG ASCENT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AID
MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTENING WHICH WILL LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING...ESPECIALLY IN REGIONS OF PRECIPITATION.  ALTHOUGH HEATING
SHOULD BE LIMITED...FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES ARE QUITE STRONG...WITH
VEERING FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER EXPECTED TO SUPPORT STORM ROTATION
WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS.  IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...ROUGHLY
500 J/KG...WILL DEVELOP FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES MAY EVOLVE...MAINLY IN THE VALLEY.  HAIL...STRONG
WINDS...AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
STORMS.

...SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA...

STRONG HEATING WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE SRN FL PENINSULA TODAY AS WEAK CONVERGENCE WILL BE NOTED
ALONG SWD MOVING WIND SHIFT.  WITH DEEP W-NWLY FLOW IT APPEARS SERN
TIP OF THE PENINSULA WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS. WEAKLY FOCUSED BOUNDARY AND LIMITED COVERAGE WARRANT LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.

...CNTRL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY...

STRENGTHENING LOW-MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY ENHANCE
ELEVATED CONVECTIVE THREAT ACROSS ERN KS/NERN OK INTO MO/AR LATE IN
THE PERIOD.  WEAK INSTABILITY AND COVERAGE WILL LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

..DARROW.. 04/04/2006