[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 040057
SWODY1
SPC AC 040055

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 PM CDT MON APR 03 2006

VALID 040100Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND
SERN U.S....

...MIDDLE ATLANTIC/SERN U.S...

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS
IT SPREADS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION THIS EVENING.  00Z
SOUNDING FROM WAL WAS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE WITH ONLY 300 J/KG
MUCAPE...ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WAS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR
SUSTAINING ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. PROXIMITY TO COOLER MARINE LAYER
NEAR THE COAST DOES NOT FAVOR STRENGTHENING OF SQUALL LINE...THUS A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

FARTHER SOUTH...VEERED FLOW ACROSS GA INTO THE CAROLINAS HAS AIDED
STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT THAT ENHANCED TEMP/DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS AHEAD OF CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...WITH LOSS OF HEATING
INSTABILITY HAS DECREASED AND THIS SHOULD FACILITATE CONTINUED
WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ONGOING ACTIVITY UNTIL THIS TRANSITION OCCURS.

..DARROW.. 04/04/2006