[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 030116
SWODY1
SPC AC 030114

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0814 PM CDT SUN APR 02 2006

VALID 030100Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...WESTERN
TENNESSEE AND WESTERN KENTUCKY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE OH/TN/MID MS VALLEYS
AND WSWWD INTO NERN TX...

...OH/TN VALLEYS...
LINE OF STORMS -- WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS -- IS CURRENTLY ARCING
SEWD FROM SRN WI INTO SRN INDIANA.  MORE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THEN
CONTINUE ARCING SWD/SWWD ACROSS WRN KY INTO NERN AR/WRN TN. 
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS OCCURRING WITH THIS AREA OF
STORMS...INCLUDING REPORTS OF SEVERAL LARGE/DAMAGING TORNADOES.

SURFACE LOW IS NOW OBSERVED OVER ERN IA...WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS NRN AND ERN IL/SRN INDIANA INTO NRN KY. 
MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SSEWD ACROSS WRN IL/SERN
MO AND THEN SWWD ACROSS NRN AND WRN AR INTO NERN TX.  WHILE AIRMASS
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT REMAINS MOIST/UNSTABLE...MUCH COOLER/DRIER
AIRMASS EXISTS NE OF WARM FRONT.  THIS LEAVES ONLY A NARROW WARM
SECTOR ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN IL...WHILE WARM SECTOR BROADENS TO
INCLUDE MOST OF KY AND INTO THE TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS.  

AS STORMS MOVE EWD/ENEWD ACROSS NERN IL INTO NRN AND CENTRAL
INDIANA...DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH WITH TIME...DUE TO MUCH MORE STABLE AIRMASS NE OF WARM
FRONT. HOWEVER...THREAT FOR HAIL MAY PERSIST WELL EWD -- PERHAPS
INTO SRN LOWER MI/OH AND PERHAPS WRN PA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

MEANWHILE S OF WARM FRONT AND E OF COLD FRONT...MOIST AND VERY
UNSTABLE WARM-SECTOR AIRMASS PERSISTS...WITH 1500 TO 3000 J/KG
MEAN-LAYER CAPE FROM NERN TX NEWD ACROSS AR INTO WRN AND CENTRAL
KY...MUCH OF TN...AND NRN PORTIONS OF MS AND AL.

IN ADDITION TO FAVORABLE INSTABILITY...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS
QUITE STRONG...INCLUDING 80-PLUS KT H5 JET STREAK NOW CENTERED OVER
SRN MO...WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS
OVERNIGHT.  GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...EXPECT SCATTERED
SUPERCELLS OVER NERN AR/WRN KY/WRN TN TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...WHILE MORE LINEAR STORMS CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
REGION.  ALONG WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES AND
LARGE HAIL...RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT MAY ALSO
EVOLVE WITH TIME.  STORMS MAY CROSS THE APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THOUGH SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS W
OF THE APPALACHIAN CREST...AS MUCH DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER EXISTS E OF
THE MOUNTAINS.

..GOSS.. 04/03/2006