[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 020102
SWODY1
SPC AC 020101

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0701 PM CST SAT APR 01 2006

VALID 020100Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN
KANSAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA, AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO OK/TX AND WRN PARTS OF MO/AR...

...CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS...
N-S CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS/SUPERCELLS IS NOW SHIFTING ACROSS
CENTRAL KS/WRN OK/WRN N TX...INTO INTO INCREASINGLY-MOIST/
MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS.  

SLY LOW-LEVEL JET HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
THIS EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES SHIFTING EWD INTO THE REGION.
 THIS COMBINED WITH 50 KT WSWLY MID-LEVEL JET WILL YIELD
INCREASINGLY-FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS.
 THEREFORE...EXPECT STORMS TO REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE
HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.  ADDITIONALLY...WITH SURFACE LOW
FORECAST TO LINGER OVER WRN KS THROUGH THE EVENING...RESULTING SSWLY
SURFACE WINDS VEERING/INCREASING TO SWLY AT 40-PLUS KT NEAR 3 KM
WILL YIELD LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A COUPLE OF STRONG
TORNADOES.

...AR/WRN MO...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INVOF WARM FRONT/WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.  AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE INVOF FRONT /500
TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/...BUT SHEAR REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED
ATTM.  HOWEVER...AS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET STREAK
SHIFT EWD OVERNIGHT...SHEAR WILL INCREASE ACROSS AR AND WRN MO. 
THEREFORE...EXPECT THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

..GOSS.. 04/02/2006