[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 011958
SWODY1
SPC AC 011956

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CST SAT APR 01 2006

VALID 012000Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
PARTS OF SWRN KS / THE ERN OK AND TX PNHDLS / WRN OK AND NWRN TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM
THE MID MO VALLEY SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND ARKLATEX...

--CONCENTRATED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS STILL ANTICIPATED THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS--

...CNTRL / SRN PLAINS...

19Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING OVER
ERN CO WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD THROUGH SERN
CO/SWRN KS AND INTO NERN OK...WHILE DRY LINE WAS BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED FROM E OF DHT TO E OF MAF.  RAPID AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION
IS IN PROGRESS E OF THE DRY LINE AND S OF THE WARM FRONT FROM NWRN
TX ACROSS THE ERN TX/OK PNHDLS AND WRN OK INTO WRN KS. MODIFICATION
OF 18Z SOUNDINGS FROM MAF AND AMA FOR MORE MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER TO
THE E YIELDS MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND A WEAKENING CAP.

RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BY 21-22Z ALONG DRY LINE FROM
THE TX PNHDL NWD TO ALONG ITS INTERSECTION WITH WARM FRONT AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAXIMUM OVER CNTRL NM APPROACHES WRN EDGE OF
INSTABILITY AXIS.  WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE CURRENTLY ONLY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG WITH INTENSIFICATION OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL
WIND FIELDS WILL RESULT IN VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES QUITE FAVORABLE
FOR INTENSE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DESTRUCTIVE HAIL AND TORNADOES. 
IT APPEARS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WILL
EXIST PRIMARILY BETWEEN 23-03Z AS BOUNDARY-LAYER RH INCREASES AND
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FURTHER INTENSIFIES /I.E. 0-1 KM SRH OF 200-300
M2/S2/.

CLUSTERS OF SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD MOVE DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS KS/NEB
TONIGHT AS LLJ BROADENS AND INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES.  WHILE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN REMAIN DISCRETE AND
SURFACE-BASED.


...NERN TX / ERN OK / AR / NRN LA...

ERN EXTENSION OF WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM N OF TUL TO NEAR HOT AND
THEN EWD ACROSS NRN MS.  AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY IS
MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF
1000-2000 J/KG.  AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHIFTING EWD THROUGH THE ARKLATEX WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT
DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM VICINITY OF WARM FRONT SWD INTO FREE
WARM SECTOR.  WHILE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG...AREA VWPS AND PROFILERS DO SHOW CONSIDERABLE
VEERING WITH HEIGHT.

POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED...SEVERE TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING WITH THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO...ESPECIALLY NEAR WARM FRONT. PERSISTENT
TSTM CLUSTER JUST N OF WARM FRONT OVER FAR NERN OK INTO SWRN MO MAY
ALSO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON OWING TO INFLUX OF UNSTABLE AIR MASS
FROM THE SW...WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DEVELOPING ACROSS SWRN
MO.

...SERN VA / NERN NC...

STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE TIDEWATER REGION WITH
MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT
VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRANSLATING EWD THROUGH CHESAPEAKE BAY INTO DE
WHICH IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO SOME INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING
STORMS.  SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE SWWD DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS
ACROSS SERN VA INTO NERN NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
AS SURFACE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AREA.  THOUGH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS THAT
DEVELOP...IT APPEARS THAT THIS THREAT IS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A
CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK.

..MEAD.. 04/01/2006